Prominent Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicts mid-March 2025 for the Solana (SOL) ETF approval deadline.
Balchunas speculates that the mind-March 2025 timeline is for Solana ETF to have a final decision. Nonetheless, he stresses that SOL ETF approval hinges on the November presidential election results influencing the SEC’s decision.
Looks like Solana ETFs are going to have a final deadline of mid-March 2025. But between now and then the most imp date is in November. If Biden wins, these likely DOA. If Trump wins, anything poss. https://t.co/ywkf6oA8Rc
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 8, 2024
Political Factor in Solana ETF Approval
Balchunas voices confidence that the US SEC will endorse filings for Solana ETF next year. The ETF analyst indicates that the political climate is key to the SOL ETF greenlight. In particular, the outcome of the November presidential election is important. He speculates that if Joe Biden wins, an approval could face delays.
Balchunas echoes fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart that the recently passed pro-crypto bill could accelerate the timeline. However, the ETF pundit suggested 2026 as the earliest timeline, citing crucial listing requirements such as the CFTC-regulated futures market for SOL.
Balchunas warns that the Biden reelection will extinguish hopes for the Solana ETFs initiative, though he admits that anything is possible if Trump wins. He recants earlier remarks, terming speculations on recent developments increasing odds for Solana ETF approval as an early call.
VanEck and 21Shares Files for Solana ETFs
Balchunas’ optimistic perspective follows the CBOE submitting Form 19b-4s for the 21Shares Core Solana ETF and the VanEck Solana Trust. Additionally, both filings cite SOL’s resistance to price manipulation, which the exchange considers possible via surveillance sharing similar to the Bitcoin and Ether ETFs.
The ETF Institute head, Nate Geraci, indicates that the decision clock to approve Solana ETFs will start ticking once the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledges the filings.
Cboe files 19b-4s for both VanEck & 21Shares Solana ETFs…
Once SEC acknowledges these filings, the decision clock starts ticking. https://t.co/JsRBLjudyT pic.twitter.com/94RLLEiwbU
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) July 8, 2024
The approval process could become a rocky road with the SEC classifying SOL as a security in lawsuits against Coinbase, Kraken, and Binance. Such a factor raises doubt about the SEC approving Solana ETF’s spot under the present leadership.
GSR Market downplays such delays, citing that Trump’s support for the crypto industry is softening the Democrats’ opposition. Moreover, the research acknowledges that bipartisan support in the pro-crypto bills could facilitate new crypto opportunities and set the stage for the Solana ETF approvals.
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