A market veteran identifies why the market vibe seems off despite Bitcoin reclaiming and staying above a crucial price milestone.
Notably, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $100,000 milestone after previously dropping below it, currently changing hands around $101,000. However, market sentiment remains lukewarm despite this achievement.
For context, many investors expected a major rally after Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, but that surge has yet to materialize. Now, several analysts have discussed why Bitcoin’s rise to six figures lacks the excitement from previous runs.
Benjamin Cowen Points to Declining Market Breadth
In a report today, Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, called attention to a major reason for the market’s neutral sentiment.
He pointed out that the Advance Decline Index (ADI) of the top 100 crypto assets has been in a downtrend since 2021. Notably, this declining trend contrasts with the 2020-2021 bull run, where the ADI showed consistent growth as altcoins saw massive gains, leading to new ATHs.
The reason the vibe is off despite $100k #BTC is because the advance decline index (ADI) of the top 100 cryptocurrencies has been in a downtrend since 2021.
Compare that to 2020-2021 when the ADI was going up.
That is why this cycle "feels" different. pic.twitter.com/mnWLrbv9p0
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) January 29, 2025
For context, the ADI tracks the difference between advancing and declining assets over time. If more assets are rising than falling, the index trends upward. If declines outnumber advances, the index moves lower.
Right now, even though Bitcoin price is rising, the ADI continues to drop, signaling weaker performances from altcoins held by most market participants who await the altcoin season. Cowen believes this is why the current cycle feels different from previous bull markets.
Struggling Altcoin Market
In addition, Khan, a mathematician and market analyst, pointed out that many investors who entered the market in 2021 have yet to see their portfolios recover. According to him, while Bitcoin has surged, most altcoins have underperformed. For instance, Ethereum continues to battle the bears at $3,000.
Here's the reality of the Biggest Bull Run 🧵
It's been more than 3 years for the 2021 batch in this market but majority of their portfolio has not recovered yet
Every cycle we've seen a rally in the market after Bitcoin halving > the same we saw this time also but only in… pic.twitter.com/Xt4zazFt2U
— Crypto with Khan ( SFZ ) (@Cryptowithkhan) January 29, 2025
The market analyst shared data on the top 100 crypto assets by market cap. The top 50 altcoins are, on average, down 24% from their all-time highs, while the next 50 have lost around 64%. This gap explains why many investors feel disheartened despite Bitcoin’s strength.
Khan also noted a pattern in the crypto market. He disclosed that retail traders often invest in trending sectors too late. By the time a sector gains mass attention, the opportunity has usually passed. He believes that only a small percentage of traders successfully adapt to new trends, while most get stuck in outdated narratives.
For instance, he pointed to data from Dune Analytics and CN Research, showing that only a tiny fraction of traders has made profits from meme coins. Citing this, Khan questioned whether most participants are truly investing or simply gambling.
Expert Anticipates New ATHs
Meanwhile, Michael van de Poppe, another market veteran, is still optimistic. In an analysis today, he noted that Bitcoin turned the $100,000 level into support again, which he sees as a strong bullish signal. He believes that if Bitcoin can break through $104,000, a new all-time high is within reach.
Great signs this morning.#Bitcoin flipped the $100K level for support, again.
It first hit the ideal zone for entries and now we have a strong S/R flip.Next goal?
Break through $104K and a new ATH is on the horizon. pic.twitter.com/nhZcHy1nCb
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 29, 2025
Despite the bearish sentiments on social media, van de Poppe confirmed he remains confident. He observed that many traders are claiming that this cycle is over, which he interprets as a sign that the market is nearing a turning point. He expects altcoins to trigger the next major move within the next two to four weeks.
In addition, even after the most recent market slump, which previously pushed BTC below $100K, van de Poppe reassured investors, saying that this could be the final shakeout before a macro shift. Notably, he advised against selling altcoins. At press time, BTC trades for $101,926, up 0.6% in the last 24 hours.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
