A recent Ichimoku Cloud analysis of the XRP/BTC pair has revealed two price paths for XRP, hinging on how the altcoin behaves against Bitcoin in the coming months.
According to market analyst Dr. Cat, XRP could either face a rejection near $6 or explode toward $30, depending on how it navigates major resistance levels identified on the 3-month and 1-month XRP/BTC charts using the Ichimoku Cloud system.
3-Month XRP Chart Against Bitcoin Shows Resistance Cluster
Notably, on the broader 3-month chart, the indicators show a heavily congested resistance zone that XRP will struggle to overcome without proper timing. In particular, the Kijun Sen, a major Ichimoku equilibrium line, is presently acting as resistance. This line alone presents a barrier.
However, XRP faces an even worse roadblock from the large bearish TK gap, which represents the vertical distance between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen. In the current setup, the Tenkan sits well below the Kijun, indicating bearish momentum and a lack of equilibrium.
In addition, the Chikou Span, which shows momentum by lagging 26 periods behind the current price, currently rests below prior candle bodies. This position indicates that historical price levels are also acting as resistance, adding to the roadblock for XRP.
Notably, Dr. Cat believes there is a 90% chance of rejection if XRP attempts to rally toward 0.00005147 BTC (or around 5200 satoshis) within the second quarter of 2025, particularly in June. He warns that for XRP to break past this level, it would require multiple quarterly candles, translating to at least a year or more of price coiling.
1-Month Chart Presents Future Hope
Meanwhile, on the 1-month XRP/BTC chart, Dr. Cat identified a similarly challenging resistance zone. Here, XRP is looking to push into a thick Kumo, or cloud, which acts as a price and momentum barrier.
As of the time of reporting, XRP rests within this cloud, showing no signs of a clear breakout. Importantly, the upper boundary of this monthly Kumo aligns with the Kijun Sen from the 3-month chart, confirming the strength of this resistance region.
Despite the immediate challenges, the monthly chart presents some hope. Specifically, the future section of the Kumo is thinning out toward the end of 2025. This suggests that XRP may find it easier to break through resistance in the fourth quarter.
According to Dr. Cat, if XRP fails to make a decisive move this month, the more probable event is not an outright price crash but a period of extended consolidation.
Notably, such coiling would allow the TK gap to close, with the Tenkan Sen gradually rising and Kijun Sen flattening or falling. Interestingly, this would also permit the Chikou Span to separate from historical candle resistance, creating a more favorable breakout structure.
XRP Could Hit a Top of $6 or Rally to $30
Essentially, if XRP consolidates through the remainder of 2025 and breaks out in Q4, Dr. Cat believes it could surge to 12,000 satoshis (0.00012 BTC). Assuming Bitcoin reaches $250,000 in that same window, this would push XRP to $30. Meanwhile, at a $100K BTC price, this translates to $12 for XRP.
However, if XRP attempts a breakout too soon, particularly in May or June, it could stall near 5200 satoshis (0.000052 BTC) and see a local top of around $4.50 to $6. Currently, the XRP/BTC chart rests on 0.00002245, with XRP trading for $2.12 and BTC at $94,570.
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