21Shares reports rising institutional demand and tightening supply could push the Bitcoin price higher amid improving global macro conditions.
Notably, Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a key breakout phase, bolstered by a convergence of structural factors that extend beyond retail speculation. According to a recent forecast by investment firm 21Shares, Bitcoin could reach $138,500 by the end of 2025.
The projection considers rising institutional participation, favorable macroeconomic shifts, and a deepening supply crunch.
As of today, Bitcoin trades at $104,684, marking a 2.16% increase over the last 24 hours and a 0.95% rise over the past seven days.
Institutional Buying Accelerates as Supply Dwindles
21Shares reports that institutional capital has moved to the forefront of Bitcoin’s demand structure. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become consistent net buyers, now absorbing more than the daily 450 BTC generated through mining.
Bitcoin’s next chapter is being written by institutions, not retail traders.
With ETFs absorbing more BTC than the network produces and macro tailwinds building, supply is drying up fast. Dive into our latest analysis on why this market looks different:https://t.co/teq9m28UCD pic.twitter.com/wscDIioG1H
— 21Shares (@21Shares) May 20, 2025
This persistent mismatch between supply and demand is reducing available inventory and supporting higher prices. Simultaneously, institutions are exploring alternative exposure strategies, including allocations via companies such as Michael Saylor’s Strategy and the upcoming Twenty One Capital.
In parallel, per 21Shares’ report, some public companies are beginning to hold Bitcoin as part of their treasury strategies. Additionally, jurisdictions such as New Hampshire and Texas have proposed legislation to establish state-level Bitcoin reserves.
Internationally, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund is reportedly accumulating BTC, signaling growing state-level interest in the asset. These developments indicate a foundational shift in how Bitcoin is being adopted and retained by long-term holders.
Macroeconomic Trends Reinforce Positive Outlook
The broader macroeconomic environment is also playing a significant role in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. Central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, are expected to reverse course after two years of rate hikes.
Real yields are falling, and the U.S. dollar has weakened in recent months. Concurrently, global liquidity is expanding as central banks in Europe, Japan, and China increase their balance sheets. These changes support risk assets, with Bitcoin notably sensitive to such liquidity movements.
Per 21Shares, improved U.S.–China relations have also added momentum. A recent easing of trade tensions between the two countries has lifted investor sentiment.
Equity markets have risen, credit spreads have tightened, and monetary indicators such as M2 and the ISM Manufacturing Index have begun to recover. Historically, Bitcoin has tracked M2 growth with a 12-week lag, a pattern that appears to be repeating.
Historical Trends Inform Current Projections
21Shares notes how Bitcoin’s previous rallies have typically occurred six to twelve months after a halving event. Past cycles, such as those in 2017 and 2020, were often driven by retail enthusiasm and loose monetary policy.
While a tenfold gain is not anticipated this time, 21Shares states that a doubling or tripling from Bitcoin’s previous $69,000 peak aligns with historical post-halving behavior.
Additionally, retail participation remains moderate compared to past cycles, suggesting that current price growth is primarily institutional in nature. Capital is reportedly flowing from registered investment advisors (RIAs), wirehouses, and corporate investors. This pattern, distinct from prior bull runs, points to a more durable demand base.
Other Firms Eyeing $130K And Above
In October of last year, research firm Ecoinometrics released an analysis indicating that Bitcoin’s value could potentially double over the following 12 months.
This projection was based on the assumption that both Bitcoin and the broader equity markets would sustain upward momentum throughout the period. Under such conditions, the firm suggested that BTC could reach around $130,000 by late 2025, marking a 100% increase from its value at the time of the report.
Meanwhile, investment manager VanEck, known for issuing crypto ETFs, outlined a long-term forecast for Bitcoin extending through 2050. The firm presented three distinct scenarios, with its baseline case placing Bitcoin’s value at $2.9 million by 2050. In contrast, VanEck’s conservative—or bear—case forecasted a minimum value of $130,314 by that time.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
