Bitcoin Has 32 Halving Events and We Have Only Seen Four: Analyst Highlights

Bitcoin would grow increasingly scarce over the years as pioneers programmed the network to halve the issuance rate periodically.

The April 2024 halving saw the mining reward for Bitcoin cut in half. Formerly at 6.25 BTC per block, the automated event slashed block rewards to 3.125 BTC.

Notably, the last halving event is just the fourth since inception. Miners received 50 BTC as a reward at the genesis block, but the 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 reductions have reduced the numbers to 25 BTC, 12.5 BTC, 6.25 BTC, and now 3.125 BTC.

32 More to Come

In a recent post, a Bitcoin analyst “BitcoinTeddy,” shared that the four-year halving event is just starting. The event, which is programmed to occur approximately every 21,000 blocks, has happened just four times. As a result, there are still 32 more to come.

According to the manuscript of the pseudonymous founder Satoshi Nakamoto, the halving event aims to make Bitcoin scarce by reducing the amount issued over time. This model, coupled with the premier asset’s limitedly capped feature, further enhances its quality as a store of value.

The next Bitcoin halving event will occur in 2028, further reducing the block reward to 1.5625 BTC. Meanwhile, the subsequent five halvings are slated for 2032, 2036, 2040, 2044, and 2048, slashing rewards to 0.78125 BTC, 0.3906 BTC, 0.1953 BTC, 0.00976 BTC, and 0.0488 BTC, respectively.

Furthermore, with the four-year halving estimate, the event would continue until 2136, four years before the estimated timeline for miners to mint the last Bitcoin. An accompanying picture shows that the automatically scheduled event would continue to halve the miner reward down to 0.00000001 BTC per block.

Interestingly, after the next two halvings, miners would not earn up to 1 BTC again for each block. This represents an over 98% drop in mining rewards in 23 years, a model that has driven Bitcoin’s value to the moon.

Halving Impact on Bitcoin Price to Grow Weightier

At the current issuance rate, miners collectively mine just 450 BTC per day and 3,150 BTC per week, compared with approximately 7,200 BTC per day and 50,400 BTC in the genesis block. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has compensated for this drop, rallying from under $1 to its current six-figure valuation.

Nonetheless, institutions are embracing Bitcoin rapidly. The asset has quickly graduated from earlier claims of being a “bubble” to a matured asset class widely called “digital gold.” With large-scale adoption emerging, Bitcoin may soon experience a supply shock.

For context, over 95% of Bitcoin’s total 21 million supply has already been mined and owned by individuals and institutions. Meanwhile, nation-states and large investors are slowly waking up to the asset, with market analysts suggesting there will soon not be enough Bitcoin for interested parties.

Heavyweights like BlackRock and MicroStrategy are incessantly buying Bitcoin, further depleting the supply. For perspective, Strategy bought 7,390 BTC ($765 million) last Monday, the amount of Bitcoin miners produce in approximately 16 days (2 weeks and 2 days).

These purchases have extensively crippled Bitcoin’s supply, driving its value upward. The leading cryptocurrency is up 17% year-to-date and 276% in the past two years, driven by institutional traction and limited supply.

Nonetheless, market watchers expect this trend to continue. Standard Chartered predicted that Bitcoin would extend its price discovery to a conservative $120,000 by the end of Q2, with other predictions envisaging a surge to $250,000 by year’s end.