Here Are Perfect Times to Buy and Sell Bitcoin Based on Halving Cycles

A prominent Bitcoin trader has suggested the perfect time for market participants to buy and sell BTC for optional gains, referencing the Bitcoin halving cycles.

The Bitcoin halving, which helps reduce the premier crypto asset’s daily issuance rate, has historically served as an important factor for investors looking to evaluate Bitcoin’s price action, especially with respect to its cyclical movements.

Bitcoin Investment Strategy Around the Bitcoin Halving

While some of these assessments have been rather undependable, trader Mags, who calls himself “the scalping pro” has recently called attention to a structure that could assist investors who are willing to play the long game when it comes to Bitcoin.

In a disclosure yesterday, Mags identified a simple Bitcoin investing strategy that may help with maximizing gains. Specifically, he centered the strategy around the Bitcoin halving cycles, identifying precisely when to buy BTC before the halving and when to sell off one’s bag after the halving.

According to Mags, investors who want to time the market perfectly should buy Bitcoin 500 days before the next halving is expected to occur. After this, they should hold onto their Bitcoin bag and do nothing. Meanwhile, once it is 500 days after the halving, Mags advises that they sell off their tokens. They can then repeat this process ahead of the next halving.

Bitcoin’s Cyclical Movements Around the Halving

Data from his chart shows the analytical bearing of this investment advice. Interestingly, Bitcoin tends to be near its bottom price of the cycle about 500 days before the next halving. In addition, the crypto asset draws closer to its cycle top 500 days after the halving.

The chart suggests that this pattern has continued to play out since the second halving in history, which occurred on July 9, 2016. Specifically, Bitcoin had dropped to around $230 in late February 2015, about 500 days before this halving. Meanwhile, by late November 2017, also 500 days after the halving, BTC had surged to $11,800, close to that cycle’s top.

Further, BTC collapsed to a low of around $3,700 by December 2018, 500 days before the third halving. After the third halving occurred on May 11, 2020, Bitcoin’s price surged to $50,000 about 500 days later, specifically in September 2021. This was also close to the cycle’s top.

Now, the trend appears to also be playing out in the ongoing cycle. Notably, Bitcoin slumped to a cycle low of $16,000 in early December 2022, about 500 days before the latest halving which occurred on April 20, 2024. Interestingly, 500 days after the halving is in September 2025, and Mags expect BTC to reach new highs then.

The September 2025 Timeline

Interestingly, the September 2025 timeline aligns with predictions from other analysts for when Bitcoin could reach its cycle top. Last month, market veteran Peter Brandt suggested Bitcoin could reach its top for this cycle in August to September 2025, projecting a top price of $150,000.

Also, analyst EGRAG predicted last October that Bitcoin’s cycle top could come up in mid to late 2025. While Mags’ Bitcoin halving template does not perfectly identify Bitcoin’s cycle bottom and top, it has proven to be accurate in pointing out prices close to these regions. 

Meanwhile, the trader failed to provide a definitive target for his cycle top. Despite this, his chart points to a price around the $160,000 mark. BTC currently trades for $104,745, down 1% this week. To claim $160,000, the asset must rise 52% from the current level.