Crypto analysts are at odds over the proximity of the altcoin season, as Bitcoin’s market dominance continues to show strength.
Bitcoin’s dominance trades at 65.80%, a level last seen in January 2021. Notably, BTC’s market share has continued to rise in tandem with its price. Nonetheless, recent analyses suggest a trend shift could be on the horizon. Multiple market watchers have identified possible catalysts for the emergence of the widely anticipated altcoin season.
Altcoin Season On the Horizon
Verified CryptoQuant author Axel Adler shared in a post today that the crypto market is on the cusp of experiencing another altcoin season. He cited the rapidly trimming altcoin balance on exchanges as an indicator of this bullish market phase.
For perspective, he noted that the average monthly exchange flow for altcoins has decreased to $1.6 billion, which is below the annual average of $2.5 billion. As insignificant as this may sound, Adler emphasized that it depicts asset consolidation and an uptick in accumulation among crypto investors.
Remarkably, this highlights an optimism that altcoins can still perform optimally this bull cycle and has historically preceded an altcoin season. Notably, an accompanying chart further identifies the significance of this reserve drop, with Adler noting that altcoins tend to rally after each event.
Context for Analysis
Further analysis with top altcoins Ethereum and Solana confirms this narrative. For instance, altcoin supply dropped below $1.6 billion in January 2023, sparking a 32% and 139% uptick in ETH and SOL’s prices, respectively.
Another notable occurrence was in October, where Ethereum increased 8% and extended its gains until its March 2024 peak of $4,092. Solana also rallied 80% that month and sustained the momentum until its peak of $210 five months later.
Meanwhile, the last time it happened before this was between August and September 2024. ETH consolidated, and SOL appreciated 10% before the famous November broader market explosion, further fueled by Donald Trump’s election victory.
Citing these data, Alder suggested that this drop in exchange flow could usher in another altcoin rally. Moreover, analyst Michael van de Poppe also supports this sentiment, but with a different catalyst in mind.
In a parallel analysis, he cited gold’s recent underperformance as a possible positive for altcoins. He noted that it was great news, as the sideways trend could prompt investors to consider diversifying into other assets, including altcoins.
It's clear, #Gold is now in a downtrend.
It couldn't continue breaking upwards and starts to accelerate.
That's actually great news.#Altcoins are about to skyrocket, and this is one of the key ingredients for it.
6-12 months sideways before new ATHs for Gold. pic.twitter.com/ksEoopZaBr
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 27, 2025
Top Analyst Issues Cautionary Update
Meanwhile, Rekt Capital has warned of a contrary situation as Bitcoin’s dominance shows no signs of weakness. He noted that after BTC’s dominance successfully retested the resistance-turned-support area of 64%, the indicator could record further upside.
According to him, history suggests that there could be no stopping Bitcoin’s dominance before 71%. An accompanying chart shows that BTC’s market share typically rallies to a multi-year resistance at 73% from the current level, as seen in the previous two occasions.
As a result, the “altcoin season” party might continue to wait for a clear sign of weakness in Bitcoin dominance. In the meantime, the altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) trades at $1.1 trillion.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
