Raoul Pal is expecting the market to repeat the rally from 2017 when Donald Trump first assumed office, and this could have positive implications for XRP.
Notably, since the start of 2025, the crypto market has struggled to find consistent momentum. After a strong rally between November 2024 and January 2025, the broader market, especially altcoins, has mostly moved sideways.
While Bitcoin has managed to reach new all-time highs, several altcoins, including XRP, have struggled this year. This new reality has left many investors wondering what comes next.
Raoul Pal Highlights Similarities to 2017 “Trump Cycle”
However, macro investor and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal believes the market is simply following the same path it took back in 2017, shortly after Donald Trump took office for the first time.
In a recent market analysis, Pal explained how Trump’s return to power has triggered similar reactions across global markets. For context, back in late 2016, right after Trump won the presidency, financial markets quickly responded.
Investors worried about tariffs and other drastic economic changes, pushing the dollar sharply higher by the end of the year. The same thing happened at the end of 2024 after Donald Trump won the latest presidential election.
Pal pointed out that when the dollar strengthens like this, financial conditions tighten. These effects typically show up in markets and the economy around three months later, which explains why many assets corrected in the first quarter of 2025.
A Weakening Dollar
Meanwhile, the market veteran believes there are deeper similarities. Just like in early 2017, the dollar has now started weakening again, which he sees as a result of the Trump administration’s push for a softer dollar.
According to him, this drop isn’t permanent or structural, but represents a short-term, policy-driven weakness. He says this kind of environment leads to strong performance in risk assets, including stocks and crypto. Essentially, Pal sees this as a major tailwind for the market, just like in 2017.
XRP 2017 Price Behavior
Although Pal didn’t mention XRP specifically, historical data suggests it is tracing the same path it took during the previous Trump cycle. Specifically, back in 2017, after Trump took office in January, XRP stayed quiet for the first couple of months.
However, from March 2017, it jumped from $0.0055 to $0.3988 by May of that year, posting a massive 7,150% gain in just three months. After that surge, XRP pulled back and entered a consolidation phase that lasted six months.
Then, in December 2017, it rallied again, this time from $0.2349 to its all-time high of $3.80 in January 2018. Interestingly, this run added another 1,517%. In total, XRP soared by roughly 69,000% from March 2017 to January 2018.
A Similar XRP Price Action
Now, the current setup looks similar. After Trump returned to office in November 2024, XRP climbed from $0.50 to $3.40 by January 2025, a 580% gain in three months, mirroring the first phase of the 2017 rally.
However, since February, XRP has pulled back and entered another consolidation. Today, that phase has lasted six months, just like it did back in 2017.
Many analysts believe XRP could be warming up for another breakout this month or next. Notably, market watchers like EGRAG Crypto have pointed to this timing, suggesting that if the pattern continues, XRP could soon enter its next major rally.
The question now is how far that rally might go. In the 2017 cycle, the second leg of XRP’s rally added about 21% of the gains from the initial breakout. If XRP follows the same pattern now, and adds 121.8% on top of its current rally, it could rise from $2.27 to around $5.
However, some believe it could go even higher this cycle, with the $6 price representing a minimum target. Now, if XRP doubles the strength of the projected move, it might reach $7.80 from the current price. Pal himself suggested in May that XRP will witness another uptrend.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
