Analyst warns that Bitcoin may be facing a new correction. Notably, a key momentum indicator has triggered a signal that previously led to major price drops.
In a post on X, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez mentioned that if the pattern repeats, Bitcoin could fall to $95,000 in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin’s Technical Indicator Flashes Bearish Signal
For context, Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has crossed below its 14-week simple moving average (SMA), a move that traders often view as a sign of weakening momentum. This bearish crossover occurred during the week of July 28, according to the chart shared by the analyst Ali.
Martinez highlighted that the same signal appeared twice in 2024. Each time, it preceded a significant price correction in Bitcoin’s market. This repetition raises concerns that Bitcoin may be entering a similar downward phase.
Previous Signals Led to Significant Bitcoin Corrections
Specifically, in April 2024, after the RSI crossed below the 14-week SMA, Bitcoin dropped from a local high of around $72,000 to a low of about $47,800 by August 2024. That marked a 32.93% decline, equaling a loss of over $24,000.
Later, in December 2024, the same crossover reappeared and was followed by a 24.75% correction. Bitcoin fell from nearly $99,000 to approximately $73,000 by April 2025, once again losing over $24,000 in value.
These two corrections showed consistency in terms of absolute dollar loss, even as the percentage declines varied. The recent crossover in July 2025 now shows Bitcoin slipping from a high of $118,000 to its current price of $113,929, a drop of nearly 4% so far.
Martinez suggests that if the current trend follows past patterns, Bitcoin may be headed toward the $95,000 level, representing a drop of approximately 20% from the recent peak. Notably, Bitcoin trades at $114,203, a 3.4% drop in the past week, reducing the monthly gain to 4.7%.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has posted strong gains in 2025, reclaiming new highs and climbing steadily above key resistance levels. On July 14, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $123,000 but has since lost this peak.
What Is the Next Bitcoin Move?
However, according to analyst Jelle, Bitcoin has officially broken out of a bullish pennant pattern and is now retesting the 50-day EMA around the $113,000–$114,000 range.
The breakout signals renewed bullish momentum, with the pennant’s target set at $130,000. As long as Bitcoin holds above the key support zone and the 50-day EMA, the technical structure supports a continuation of the uptrend.
Another analyst, Mayank Dudeja, noted that Bitcoin is trading in a tight range between strong resistance at $114,500–$115,000 and key support at $112,000–$112,500. Although it recently bounced from the demand zone, it remains below the descending trendline, showing no clear bullish momentum.
The RSI is neutral around 47, indicating weak buying pressure. The analyst noted that a breakout above $115,000 could trigger a rally toward $118,000–$120,000, but a drop below $112,000 may open the door to deeper losses toward $110,000 or $108,000.
Meanwhile, analyst Michael had earlier revealed that Bitcoin is retesting a multi-year trendline after hitting claiming the new peak above $123K. Now trading around $114,000, the analyst noted that Bitcoin’s price action around this long-term level could determine its next move.
Notably, Ash Crypto suggests Bitcoin is mirroring its 2017 bull run, where it broke descending channels before surging from $7,900 to nearly $20,000. The analyst noted that BTC shows a similar setup to that final rally. Ash believes Bitcoin is entering a parabolic phase, with a potential breakout toward $150,000–$180,000 in the coming weeks.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
