Amid recent commentaries, we assessed what XRP price could rise to if the XRP Ledger (XRPL) secured 20% of the tokenized RWA value by 2026.
Notably, in a recent report, Ripple called attention to the importance of crypto custody. The firm described custody as the gateway for institutions entering the market.
It explained that proper custody gives institutions the tools to manage risk, stay compliant with regulations, and build new business models. Ripple then linked the rising demand for custody directly to the expected boom in tokenized real-world assets (RWA).
XRPL Pivoting to RWA Tokenization
Interestingly, Ripple executives and XRP community members have continued to suggest that the XRPL could become an important platform for RWA tokenization. For instance, Ripple CTO David Schwartz said in 2023 that the XRPL was shifting its focus toward RWA tokenization.
Last month, investment manager Bitwise supported this narrative, suggesting that buying XRP could act as a straightforward way to gain exposure to the tokenization market.
Right now, tokenized RWA on-chain carries a value of $26.44 billion, according to data from RWA.xyz. Of this total, XRPL accounts for just $302.4 million, which equals just about 1.1% of the market.
Meanwhile, with these metrics, XRP trades at $2.9, supported by a market cap of $172.6 billion and a circulating supply of 59.41 billion tokens.
The bigger question is would there be any reasonable impact on XRP price if XRPL wins a larger slice of the RWA market in the coming years. To assess this, we asked Google Gemini what might happen if XRPL captured 20% of the market by 2026.
XRP Price by 2026 if It Captures 20% of Tokenized RWA
According to Google Gemini, there are too many unknowns to give a precise forecast. The current $26.44 billion RWA valuation will almost certainly change by 2026, which makes exact predictions impossible. Still, Gemini presented a hypothetical assessment to show the scale of what could happen.
The chatbot suggested that the total RWA value could grow to $70 billion by 2026. If the XRP Ledger captured 20% of that, its share would stand at about $14 billion.
Gemini then used today’s market position as a reference, pointing out that XRP’s current market cap of $172.6 billion comes from only $302.4 million worth of RWA. This means the ratio of market cap to RWA exposure is about 571 to 1.
Applying the same ratio to a $14 billion share of RWA, XRP’s market cap could rise to nearly $8 trillion. When divided across the current circulating supply of 59.41 billion tokens, this would put XRP’s price at roughly $134.5.
However, Gemini stressed that this example is highly simplified. The projection assumes there is linear growth between XRP price and its share of tokenized RWA, which would not be the case. For instance, the XRPL RWA value recently surged to the $302 million mark, but this had minimal impact on XRP price. It remains to be seen if a larger spike would have a reasonable impact.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
