The altseason could be in jeopardy as three pointers suggest the Bitcoin dominance would rebound and target greater heights, driven by how BTC reacts to current price levels.
Bitcoin’s share of the cryptocurrency market has experienced a notable correction since the start of July. With Ethereum gaining red-hot form, which sparked an over 100% increase in two months to a new all-time high in August, BTC dominance has dropped from 65.58% to 58.15% at the time of writing.
Yet for prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen, the scenario would likely reverse. He shared in an August 31 tweet that Bitcoin dominance would most probably find a low soon and rebound extensively, with three possible Bitcoin price outcomes historically backing this narrative.
Three Bitcoin Price Outcomes Likely to Lead to Dominance Rebound
Notably, the three likely price developments that would spark a dominance rebound come from how Bitcoin reacts to two notable simple moving averages in the weekly timeframe. Specifically, Cowen highlighted the premier cryptocurrency’s price action around the 20-week and 50-week SMA as major indicators.
In the first scenario, he noted that if Bitcoin bounces from the 20-week SMA and heads higher, then its dominance would rise with it. He identified that this happened in 2017 and led to another round of bullish market development. Notably, BTC trades at $107,922 at the time of writing, slightly below the SMA at $108,969, and needs a reaction from here to set this outcome in motion.
Meanwhile, the second price development would see Bitcoin drop below the 20W SMA, similar to an occurrence in the third quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. An accompanying chart highlighted this scenario, as BTC dropped to below the 20W for most of July and September 2024. It reached the 50W MA with a drop to $49,217 in August 2024 and $52,600 in September 2024.
The analyst shared that this price development will see altcoins capitulate. Currently, the 50-week SMA stands at $95,860, which is an 11% drop from the current market price. If this does happen, he asserts that altcoins would record an over 30% price retracement.
Altcoins to Bleed if Bitcoin Consolidates at 20W SMA
Finally, Cowen shared the last development. Here, he noted that if BTC consolidates around the 20-week SMA throughout September, as it did in 2022, then altcoins will likely slowly bleed.
As a result, the analyst concluded that regardless of the direction of Bitcoin, its market share will likely rebound from recent lows to higher levels. According to him, the crypto market may be resuming its final rotation into Bitcoin during this bull cycle.
Remarkably, this might pause the much-anticipated altcoin season, as a BTC dominance growth does not historically go hand in hand with an altcoin price explosion. The prospect of this bullish altcoin phase gained momentum when analysts highlighted last week that the BTC dominance had broken below a 2-year trendline.
How Bitcoin and its dominance react in the coming days will determine whether altcoins will sustain their current outperformance or yield to the crypto leader’s preeminence.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
