Nate Geraci, the president of NovaDius Wealth Management, highlights the growing market confidence surrounding the potential approval of a spot XRP ETF this year.
He referenced data from Polymarket showing that XRP ETF approval odds stood at 87%. This indicates that Polymarket users are 87% confident the U.S. SEC will approve at least one XRP ETF this year.
Notably, the data shows a 16% surge in approval odds over the past year. This reflects heightened confidence in the likelihood of XRP ETFs launching by the end of 2025.
Approval Is Near Certain
Meanwhile, Geraci believes the approval odds are closer to 100%. To him, it is almost certain that the XRP ETFs will go live this year. Despite his belief, he warned investors not to consider his speculation a formal investment recommendation.
For context, Polymarket enables users to bet on real-world events, spanning a range of topics from politics to economic developments. Before the launch of Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs, traders on the platform had also assigned high approval odds—and both products were eventually approved in the U.S.
The same scenario is playing out for XRP, with approval odds currently standing at 87%. On June 3, bettors’ confidence spiked to around 98.2% but has dipped slightly ot the current level at 87%.
XRP ETF Race Intensifies
Meanwhile, the XRP ETF race has been gaining momentum lately. Last month, several issuers, including Bitwise, Canary, Grayscale, and Franklin, updated their XRP ETF applications. According to the update, the issuers require the funds to facilitate XRP or cash creations, as well as cash or in-kind redemptions.
At the time, many analysts suggested that the update indicated that prospective issuers were addressing specific SEC requests. So far, the SEC has postponed its decision on XRP ETFs on several occasions. However, by October 2025, the securities regulator must decide on these pending XRP products.
People Are Underestimating Demand for XRP ETF
Meanwhile, Geraci noted that many people are underestimating the demand XRP ETFs will attract. This suggests that he expects the demand for the investment product to exceed people’s expectations.
You heard it here first…
People are severely underestimating investor demand for spot xrp & sol ETFs.
Just like they did w/ spot btc & eth ETFs.
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) September 1, 2025
He noted that the same thing happened with spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs before they went live. In his follow-up comment, he shared screenshots of his prediction about strong demand for ETFs separately tied to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Although skeptics expressed doubts before the launch, the products eventually attracted strong interest. For context, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $54 billion in inflows, and Ethereum funds have recorded inflows worth $13.53 billion.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
