If XRP ETFs Absorb 4% of Supply, Here’s How High XRP Could Go

Amid recent bullish projections, how high could XRP price rise if XRP ETFs absorb up to 4% of XRP’s circulating supply in their first year?

Notably, the first XRP exchange-traded fund, the Rex-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR), launched recently and immediately drew heavy interest. Following this debut, the market is now looking ahead to October, when several more XRP ETFs could receive approval. 

XRP ETF Prospects

Particularly, asset managers such as Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, WisdomTree, and 21Shares all have products lined up. Interestingly, XRPR’s debut captured mainstream attention with $37.7 million in natural trading volume, the biggest opening for any ETF this year, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.

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The strong start triggered discussions about what future ETF approvals could mean for the XRP price. Recent reports indicate that Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, believes XRP ETFs could absorb between 1% and 4% of XRP’s circulating supply within the first year. 

For context, XRP currently has 59.77 billion tokens in circulation, and 4% of that equals about 2.39 billion tokens. At a value of $3, the scale of that potential absorption could have a massive impact on the XRP price.

However, the extent of this impact remains unclear. As a result of this uncertainty, we recently asked Google Gemini for a hypothetical assessment.

Gemini Predicts XRP Price if XRP ETFs Absorb 4% of Circulating Supply

In response, Gemini described the scenario as a case of supply and demand. If ETFs buy 2.39 billion XRP tokens, the market will see a capital inflow of roughly $7.17 billion. This aligns with the projection from JPMorgan, which suggested that XRP ETFs could record $8 billion inflow in their first year.

According to Gemini, this would create a major surge in demand that could tip the balance of the market. The AI chatbot explained that the major factor would be supply. Notably, if sellers fail to meet this sudden wave of demand, the XRP price would rise as buyers compete for fewer tokens. 

Gemini pointed out that other assets have reacted the same way when institutional products like ETFs sparked strong inflows. For instance, ETF inflows sent Bitcoin’s price to a new ATH before the 2024 halving. These historical cases bolster XRP’s bullish outlook.

Using that context, Gemini projected a possible short-term rally of two to five times XRP’s current value. That would lift the price into a range between $6 and $15. 

Nonetheless, Gemini stressed that this outlook represents a highly bullish yet still speculative scenario. Notably, the actual outcome would depend on how much liquidity the market provides and how investors respond once ETFs start trading.