Shiba Inu to $1? The Hard Math Behind SHIB $1 Price Dream

While many investors hope to see Shiba Inu (SHIB) reach the ambitious $1 mark, the mathematical reality paints a much different picture.

Several community members and industry commentators have issued ambitious price predictions for SHIB. Targets ranging from $0.0001 to $0.001 and, in some cases, $1. Notably, the $1 prediction has elicited mixed reactions among Shiba Inu community members.

Some community members argue that Shiba Inu is capable of reaching the ambitious price milestone. For instance, Shiba Inu’s marketing lead, Lucie, previously highlighted a ChatGPT insight to suggest that the $1 target is achievable through significant utility growth and large-scale token burns.

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Why a $1 SHIB Price Is Mathematically Questionable

However, stripping away the hype and applying basic math to the prediction reveals a far less encouraging reality. This is mainly due to the massive supply of Shiba Inu, which currently stands at 589.24 trillion tokens.

For context, Shiba Inu is currently trading at $0.00001211 and has a market cap of $7.14 billion. From its current price, SHIB would need to stage a rally of 8,267,538% to reach $1.

If Shiba Inu’s supply of 589.24 trillion tokens stays the same, a $1 price would translate to a staggering $589 trillion market cap. This figure is almost five times the global GDP of $114 trillion and about 148 times larger than the entire crypto market’s estimated $4 trillion capitalization.

Shiba Inu Path to Potentially Reaching $1

The math highlights that Shiba Inu’s massive token supply limits its chances of ever reaching a $1 target. Notably, Shiba Inu has made notable progress in reducing its supply through burns. However, the pace of this progress has significantly slowed in recent months.

Manual Burn

Recall that less than a year after SHIB launched, its supply dropped from the initial one quadrillion to around 590 trillion, thanks to Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin’s 410 trillion SHIB burn.

Since then, the community has continued to support burns as a strategy to increase SHIB’s price. In theory, the $1 target might be reachable if the circulating supply is reduced by 99% or more.

However, recent monthly burn rates have varied between 13 million and 2.31 billion SHIB, and in the past 24 hours, only 232,829 tokens were sent to the burn wallet.

At this rate, it would take many decades to reduce the supply to the level (~7 billion SHIB) required to support a $1 price with a $7 billion market cap.

Shibarium-Powered Burns

Notably, efforts have been made to support Shiba Inu’s burn through the use of Shibarium. This L2 blockchain burns SHIB tokens using a portion of its gas fees.

While fees are paid in BONE, the burn portal converts this to SHIB and automatically sends the token to the burn contract. It has already burned billions of SHIB since launching in August 2024.

However, the effectiveness of this system depends heavily on the adoption of Shibarium’s network. Recently, Shibarium’s activity has dropped sharply, with daily transactions falling to 20,460, compared to over 4 million per day a few months ago.

In Sum

Essentially, without significant adoption of Shibarium and a massive acceleration in token burns, the dream of a $1 SHIB price remains highly unrealistic.

While the community’s enthusiasm is commendable, the math simply doesn’t support such an extreme valuation under current conditions.