The U.S. government shutdown has introduced fresh uncertainty into the crypto market, particularly surrounding the arrival of XRP ETFs.
With Congress unable to agree on funding, nearly 900,000 federal workers have been furloughed. At the same time, the SEC has confirmed it will be operating with “a very limited number of staff.”
As a result, new product approvals, including multiple spot XRP ETF filings, are likely to face delays. ETF analyst Nate Geraci suggested that “ETF Cryptober” could be put on hold as the SEC focuses solely on market integrity and emergency operations.
XRP ETFs Hang in the Balance
October was widely expected to be a breakthrough month for XRP, with seven major issuers managing $1.7 trillion awaiting SEC rulings.
Grayscale’s XRP Trust conversion has a hard deadline of October 18, meaning the SEC must approve or deny it once operations resume.
In past cases with Bitcoin, the SEC has approved multiple filings simultaneously, opening the floodgates for institutional inflows. Many expected a similar approach for XRP ETFs.
This triggered several rounds of predictions of double-digit prices once regulated access is live. However, the outlook for an October XRP ETF approval is now diminishing amid recent political developments in the U.S.
Community Sees Opportunity
While some fear delays will blunt momentum, XRP community figure Zach Rector offered a different perspective. He tweeted that the shutdown “extends your chance to front-run institutions.”
The statement implies that retail investors now have more time to position themselves before institutional demand accelerates.
Rector’s view is supported by Santiment data, which shows that institutional wallets accumulated nearly $1 billion in XRP in August. More recently, specifically over the past two days, whales bought 250 million XRP.
With this, these investors have increased their XRP positions to 9.2 billion worth over $27 billion. In other words, major players are quietly preparing ahead of SEC rulings.
250 million $XRP bought by whales in 48 hours! pic.twitter.com/S0DZYQms7i
— Ali (@ali_charts) October 1, 2025
Notably, XRP is trading at just $2.99 at press time, attempting to recapture the $3 psychological barrier.
Analysts Still Bullish
Despite the pause caused by the shutdown, analysts remain optimistic. Projections range from $22 to $50 for XRP post-ETF approval, with Canary Capital estimating $5 billion in investments within weeks and JPMorgan suggesting up to $8 billion in the first year.
CME futures data further reinforces this momentum, with XRP futures topping $1.25 billion in open interest.
As a result, Cambridge analyst Bradley Peak described XRP as Wall Street’s “dark horse,” suggesting it could surprise skeptics just as Bitcoin did once ETFs legitimized it.
Essentially, the U.S. shutdown may have stalled the timeline, but many in the XRP community see this delay as an opportunity rather than a setback.
The chance to accumulate before institutions flood in, as Zach Rector argues, may indeed have been extended, making this the calm before the storm.
Nonetheless, there are ongoing suggestions that some ETFs may be deemed automatically approved once their final October deadline passes. Still, the SEC could delay their launch, as seen in Grayscale’s DLC fund conversion to an ETF earlier this year.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
