CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin remains outside a bear market as long as inflows persist.
A chart shared by Young Ju on X revealed that Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has reached $1.1 trillion, marking its highest level to date as capital continues flowing into the market.
Ju cited this chart to mention that on-chain data does not yet support the claim of a bear market, despite the fear of one, as Bitcoin dropped to $95,000 from a high of $127,000 in October.
Indeed, he acknowledged that early large holders have been selling into the market, creating short-term pressure. The market pundit believes this trend could ease if their selling slows and macro sentiment improves.
Realized Cap Hits New Record
For the uninitiated, the realized cap metric measures the value of coins based on the last price at which they were traded, presenting a clearer view of actual capital in the system than the spot price alone. Its rise to $1.1 trillion indicates ongoing accumulation through both the late-year rally and the recent pullback.
Historical trends reinforce this pattern of steady growth. In 2017, realized cap increased during Bitcoin’s surge to nearly $20,000, but remained well below current levels, reflecting a smaller long-term capital base.
Between 2018 and 2020, realized cap held relatively firm despite Bitcoin spending much of the period under $10,000. Afterward, the 2021 bull cycle pushed both price and realized cap significantly higher as capital entered at scale.
During the 2022 bear market, however, Bitcoin’s realized cap experienced a consistent and noticeable decline, reflecting sustained capital outflows and long-term holders exiting the market.
From 2023 to 2024, the metric continued to rise throughout a broad consolidation phase, marking one of its most consistent periods of growth. Ju argues that this steady expansion is a key reason the current environment does not resemble a true bear market.
Meanwhile, Ju also pointed to the 6 to 12-month holder cost basis at roughly $94,000 as the key threshold, arguing that Bitcoin is not in a bear phase as long as the price stays above this level.
Other Analysts Offer Contrasting Views
Notably, a pseudonymous on-chain analyst offered a different interpretation, suggesting that the rise in realized cap while price momentum weakens may be driven by long-term holders taking profits while still in the green, rather than by fresh capital inflows.
The RCAP going up while price momentum is 0-negative, is due to the excessive profit-taking by long-term holders who are still sitting on a good profit margin.
The most recent LTH-supply’s sharp decline, was a unique one, why?
If you compare it with other similar declines,…
— CryptoVizArt.₿ (@CryptoVizArt) November 14, 2025
He highlighted the recent drop in long-term holder supply as unusual, since heavy spending typically occurs during rallies, not during periods of price weakness.
DeFi Planet also warned that renewed whale selling could place fresh downward pressure on the broader crypto market. While smaller participants continue to add exposure, heavy sell-offs from major holders often outweigh retail demand and can accelerate volatility.
Amid this fear of a bear market, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has advised traders to remain calm. Addressing the emotional swings that accompany every market dip, he reminded investors that reactions tend to become extreme during corrections, yet market cycles continue over time.
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