XRP analyst Chad Steingraber has outlined a new projection showing how rapidly institutional inflows into spot ETFs could consume XRP’s circulating supply.
His analysis builds on a growing narrative within the XRP community that the real impact of ETFs has not yet appeared, but when it does, the scale could be unprecedented.
The “One-Day Billion” ETF Flow Scenario
In a post on X, Steingraber shared a hypothetical model using assumptions based on current XRP prices. His calculations show:
- One XRP ETF could see an average of $90 million in daily inflows.
- Across 12 ETFs, that totals $1.08 billion per day.
- Assuming 50% of that creates new XRP, that amounts to $504 million.
- This would require buying about 229 million XRP in a single day.
He then expanded the model, showing that if this level of ETF inflows continued for a week, 1.14 billion XRP would need to be acquired.
Over a month, the figure would rise to 4.58 billion XRP, and after six months, ETF issuers could absorb 27.49 billion XRP, which is nearly half of the circulating supply.
Ultimately, Steingraber argued that, without price appreciation, the collective XRP ETFs could consume the entire public supply within a year.
This aligns with his earlier point that XRP faces two possible outcomes. Either ETFs accumulate the majority of the supply at current prices, or rising prices slow their buying. Either scenario remains bullish for the long term.
Why ETF Inflows Could Become Explosive
Notably, Steingraber’s scenario comes as XRP ETFs gain momentum. Canary Capital’s XRPC ETF saw $245 million in day-one inflows and recorded $25.41 million and $8.32 million on the following two days. So far, Canary’s XRP ETF has amassed $277.82 million in assets.
Meanwhile, analysts expect Franklin Templeton’s EZRP ETF, launching November 24, to draw $150–$250 million on its first day.
Five more ETFs from Bitwise, Grayscale, 21Shares, Valkyrie, and CoinShares are pending. Based on this, community projections suggest seven XRP ETFs could generate $7.2 billion in annual inflows.
Will It Trigger a Supply Shock?
With just over 60 billion XRP in circulation, competing ETF demand could create a major supply imbalance, according to commentators like Steingraber.
His model suggests that six months of heavy inflows could consume half the supply, and a full year could absorb nearly all publicly available XRP. However, this remains speculative.
Moreover, XRP continues to trade near $2.15 despite ongoing ETF demand. Specifically, XRP has shown a muted price response to ETF launches, dipping over 12% since last week.
As XRPL Foundation Board Director Fabio Marzella noted, ETF demand doesn’t hit the spot market instantly because trades occur on stock exchanges, funds settle on a T+1 cycle, and issuers buy XRP OTC rather than publicly.
In other words, this delays visible price impact, meaning billions could accumulate quietly before affecting the market.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
