Analyst Says Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Have Surrendered, But a Bigger Move May Still Be Ahead

CryptoQuant analysts believe short-term Bitcoin holders have surrendered, but key metrics suggest the market may still be at a crucial turning point.

This comes as fresh data from the Short-Term Holder SOPR (STH SOPR) shows another round of capitulation, with the metric dropping below 1.0.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan, the latest decline reflects a new wave of loss realization among recent buyers as BTC trades around $86,812. He notes that this mirrors the stress patterns seen during earlier pullbacks in the current bull cycle.

Sentiment Flips as STH SOPR Breaks Below 1.0

Dan noted that the downward move in STH SOPR shows a shift from optimism to negativity, with a portion of newly acquired coins now being sold at a loss. 

He explains that although this capitulation is smaller than previous ones, the behaviour mirrors the same bottom-forming action observed at earlier correction lows. This aligns with earlier reports that short-term holders have been the main drivers of recent sell-offs.

The analyst adds that the combined long- and short-term SOPR currently sits in a zone that can be interpreted in two possible ways. It may represent a typical mid-cycle correction, or it could be the early stage of a broader structural downturn. 

Recurring SOPR Patterns Highlight Capitulation Waves

A historical view of Bitcoin’s SOPR from 2016 to 2025 shows that major corrective phases consistently feature deep troughs below 1.0. The sharpest dips occurred in early 2019 (0.87) and 2022–2023 (0.88–0.90), both followed by months of consolidations and eventual recoveries.

From 2023 to 2025, short-term holders experienced three distinct stress waves. August–September 2024 (STH SOPR at 0.98), April 2025 (0.94), and the latest spike in November (0.94) while BTC traded between $80k–$90k. 

Essentially, the current drop looks just like past cycles. Short-term holders panic and sell at a loss, then the market partially recovers, something that has happened throughout every Bitcoin bull cycle.

What Does This Combined SOPR Mean for Bitcoin? 

Dan concludes that the market has reached a turning point. If Bitcoin is still in a bull market, this recent wave of selling could be the last stage of the correction, similar to past bottoms. But if a new bear market is starting, these losses may be just the beginning of a longer, deeper drop. 

Despite this dual outlook, he stresses that a catastrophic 70%-style bear-market collapse from the all-time high appears unlikely based on current structural signals. 

Still, he warns that a Bitcoin price below $80,000 would significantly increase the likelihood of a tougher market environment. Notably, Bitcoin is 32% away from its all-time high recorded in early October after another 10% drop in the past week.

Analysts Predict What is Next for Bitcoin 

Captain Faibik noted that Bitcoin remains trapped beneath a downward-sloping resistance line. According to him, a successful breakout above this line would be a key trigger, potentially opening the way for a 10%–12% rally, lifting Bitcoin from its current $86,864 toward roughly $96,541.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant warns that Bitcoin is in its most bearish state since January 2023, with its Bull Score Index at 20 and a drop below the 365-day moving average. Weak demand from Treasury companies and institutions limits price support, and some analysts now expect the current cycle to extend into 2026.