Model Shows XRP Price Could Hit $600 at 1 Elasticity if ETFs Absorb 74.5M XRP Daily

A recent pricing model suggests that the XRP price could reach an ambitious three-digit level at high elasticity if ETFs absorb over 74 million tokens a day.

Notably, the introduction of spot XRP ETFs has triggered confidence among investors, who now watch closely to see how these products might impact XRP’s price once the broader market turns bullish and the funds gain real traction.

XRP ETFs Recording Early Successes

Interestingly, the increased confidence comes from the successes these funds have recorded within two weeks. Specifically, in just 12 trading sessions, the four spot XRP ETFs have brought in a combined $756.26 million, surpassing their Solana counterparts, which have been trading for 24 days. 

Of the $756.26 million, the XRP ETFs added $89.65 million on Dec. 1 alone, the latest intraday performance. Notably, due to the previous week’s inflows, the ETFs helped XRP record its largest weekly inflow into investment products so far, with $289 million coming in the previous week. 

XRP Price at Different Elasticity Levels

These numbers have encouraged investors, who now assess how steady ETF accumulation could influence long-term price behavior. For instance, investor Mohamed Bangura presented a price-path sensitivity model to show how the XRP price might react if ETFs buy 74.5 million XRP every day. 

At today’s prices, this level of demand equals about $149 million daily. He based the model on an estimated exchange supply of 2.7 billion XRP and included an additional 300 million XRP released from escrow every 30 days. He then applied elasticity levels of 0.2, 0.5, and 1.0 across a 180-day timeline to see how each setting changes the price reaction. 

According to him, low elasticity causes exchanges to run low quickly, while high elasticity creates sharp price jumps and pushes some of the demand toward over-the-counter markets.

Specifically, in the 0.2 elasticity scenario, the model shows XRP rising from roughly $2 to about $3 within the first month. It then climbs toward $7 within 45 days and stays near that level for the rest of the period, with brief dips that still hold slightly above $3. 

Meanwhile, at 0.5 elasticity, XRP moves faster, reaching about $5 after a month and crossing $35 within 41 days. It then holds near $35 through the 180 days, with short declines that stay just above $5. 

Interestingly, the model shows the strongest reaction at an elasticity of 1. In this case, XRP surges to roughly $600 within 45 days and remains near that range for the rest of the projection, aside from temporary drops toward the $20 area.

How Elasticity Impacts Price Reaction

For the uninitiated, elasticity describes how strongly a price reacts to steady buying pressure compared to the liquidity available on exchanges. When elasticity sits at the lower end, the market will soak up heavy buy orders without dramatic price changes. 

In this case, the price will rise slowly, but exchange balances could shrink quickly because buying continues while price adjustment remains mild. Notably, markets with deeper liquidity and slower price movements often behave this way. 

However, when elasticity rises, even small gaps between buyers and sellers could create rapid price acceleration. For context, thinner liquidity or faster-moving order books usually produce this type of reaction, which can lead to sharp spikes when constant demand overwhelms supply.