XRP Slips into Golden Pocket: What’s the Next Direction from Here?

XRP has seen renewed bearish pressure since its Jan. 28 high, recently slipping into an important Fibonacci region called the golden pocket. 

XRP has continued its recent slide after the $1.93 high on Jan. 28, now trading around $1.59 within the golden pocket. However, the latest move was not unexpected, as it represented the completion of a corrective phase that had been developing for weeks.

Interestingly, amid the ongoing downturn, XRP appears to be forming a bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart, bolstering confidence in an imminent recovery. How high XRP rebounds from here depends on its ability to reclaim and hold critical levels above $1.78.

Key Points

• XRP hit a high of around $1.93 on Jan. 28 before selling off sharply into the $1.55 to $1.59 range.
• Its price action since Q4 2025 has followed a downward channel with lower highs and weakening momentum.
• The latest drop was a Wave 3 decline, which recently reached the 0.618 golden pocket, aligning with the $1.55 to $1.59 support zone.
• A bullish divergence on the 4-hour RSI formed as the price hit the Wave 3 low, indicating reduced selling pressure.
• The first upside resistance for a potential Wave 4 rebound sits at $1.78, followed by higher resistance at $1.93 and $2.03.
• Holding above $2.03 would reduce the risk of another drop, while failure at resistance could still send XRP back toward $1.55 or lower.

XRP’s Q4 2025 Decline Followed an Elliott Wave Structure 

Market analyst Casi called attention to these important levels amid the escalating downturn. In her latest analysis, she shared a 4-hour XRP chart showing that price action since Q4 2025 has moved within an Elliott Wave structure. 

Specifically, the Q4 2025 decline concluded with the completion of a corrective wave that fit into an Elliott Wave pattern. Notably, the structure showed a prior Wave 3 low around $1.8 followed by a push higher into Wave 4 in early January 2026. 

This rebound peaked at $2.41 by Jan. 6, aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $2.4128. However, after this peak, the XRP price turned lower, forming a new corrective sub-wave that has now pushed it to the $1.5 region.

The New Corrective Sub-wave 

In this corrective sub-wave, the decline was started by Wave 1, leading to a low of $2.02 by Jan. 13, while Wave 2 produced only a shallow rebound that pushed prices to the Fibonacci 0.382 level ($2.17). In Elliott Wave theory, shallow second waves often lead to deeper fourth-wave retracements later on.

Notably, the Wave 3 led to the ongoing downtrend. Specifically, XRP dropped into the 0.618 Fib retracement, called the golden pocket. The sell-off reached the 1.618 Fib extension for Wave 3, placing the low in the $1.55 to $1.59 range. Casi noted that this represented a textbook Wave 3 completion.

Could XRP Stage a Relief Bounce from Here?

As XRP reached the Wave 3 low, momentum started to change. For instance, the price printed a lower low, but the RSI formed a higher low, creating a bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart. This suggests that selling pressure weakened as the price entered the golden pocket.

Based on this, Casi expects a Wave 4 relief rally to begin from this region. She identified $1.78 as the first major upside test. This level marks the 0.382 retracement of the Wave 3 decline and aligns with a former support area that broke during the sell-off. As a result, it could act as the first meaningful resistance during a rebound.

Levels That Will Determine What Comes Next

Casi also shared higher targets if the Wave 4 move gains strength. Notably, because Wave 2 retraced only shallowly, Wave 4 could climb higher than usual. In this case, XRP could revisit the $1.93 level, followed by a possible move toward $2.03, which represents the macro 0.5 Fibonacci retracement.

Meanwhile, the $2.03 area represents the most critical level. According to Casi, XRP must reclaim this price and hold it as support to remove the need for another leg lower. A sustained move above $2.03 would raise the chances that the final Wave 5 decline fails to develop. Until that happens, downside risk remains.