Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone Says Bitcoin ETF Boom Has Hit Peak, Cites $10K Price Risk

Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence argues that the Bitcoin explosive run past $100,000 following the launch of U.S. spot ETFs may already be over.

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In a series of posts, he suggested that Bitcoin could be signaling a reversal across risk assets, warning of a potential drop back toward $10,000. Notably, Bitcoin is trading at $72,000 today and would need an over 86% drop to reach McGlone’s dip target.

Key Points

• Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone warns Bitcoin’s ETF-driven surge past $100K may have marked a late-cycle peak.
• He says Bitcoin signals a reversal in risk assets, with downside risk toward $10,000.
• McGlone links the rally to ETF inflows, politics, and “peak beta” conditions that often precede sharp drops.
• He notes Bitcoin ETFs lag gold and risk-adjusted returns, hinting capital may shift to safer assets.

Bitcoin Peak Coincides With Historic Market Stretch

McGlone says Bitcoin’s price may have peaked in 2025, when it traded at $126,200, around the same time the U.S. stock market’s capitalization relative to GDP reached its highest level since 1928. This metric is often used to gauge whether equities are overvalued.

According to his analysis, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 helped drive massive inflows and pushed prices into six-figure territory. However, that same surge may have marked the late stage of a market cycle.

ETFs, Politics, and “Peak Beta” Conditions

The analyst also links the 2025 rally to a mix of structural and sentiment-driven factors. These include ETF adoption and the growing political embrace of crypto by figures like Donald Trump.

He describes this phase as a “pump then dump,” meaning prices rise quickly and then fall. He believes Bitcoin may be in a “peak beta” stage, where risky assets briefly outperform before dropping sharply.

Notably, McGlone also points out that Bitcoin ETFs have underperformed the S&P 500 on a risk-adjusted basis, mainly because Bitcoin is significantly more volatile, about four times more so, which makes it less attractive to institutional investors.

Bitcoin ETFs Lag Behind Gold

Another key takeaway from McGlone’s analysis is the relative performance gap between Bitcoin and gold since the launch of ETFs.

He claims the iShares Bitcoin Trust by BlackRock helped boost Bitcoin by about 50% since early 2024, but that’s similar to the S&P 500 and much lower than gold, which rose around 135%.

This divergence, according to McGlone, suggests that capital may be rotating away from high-risk crypto assets toward traditional safe havens.

Shift in Market Leadership

McGlone concludes that the Bitcoin ETF boom may have been less of a long-term catalyst and more of a late-cycle signal. If his outlook holds, Bitcoin could decline along with other speculative assets, while gold may perform better as a safer store of value.

While Bitcoin remains a dominant force in crypto, the data suggests its role as a high-beta asset could work against it if market conditions tighten and investors become more cautious. These factors explain why McGlone continues to call for a $10,000 price drop for BTC.