Latest on-chain data for Bitcoin suggests the leading crypto may not have reached its cycle bottom despite the current massive drawdowns.
This is because key historical indicators have yet to flash the signals that marked previous bear market lows. At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $63,150, up 0.5% over the past 24 hours and 6.75% over the last seven days.
Despite the recovery, the asset remains down 28% year-to-date and nearly 50% below its 2025 all-time high.
NUPL Indicator Has Yet to Confirm a Market Bottom
CryptoQuant author thechessONCHAIN highlighted Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) as one of the market’s most reliable long-term cycle indicators.
NUPL measures the share of Bitcoin’s market capitalization that is sitting in unrealized profit. The metric currently stands at 0.158. Its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) is at 0.215, while the 30-day EMA is at 0.155.
The 30-day EMA crossed below the 100-day EMA on June 2. Both indicators have continued to trend toward the zero line. Although the crossover points to weakening market momentum, it does not necessarily signal that Bitcoin has reached its bottom.
Notably, every major Bitcoin cycle low occurred only after the 100-day EMA of NUPL fell below zero. That happened during the 2011 bear market near $2, in January 2015 around $182, at the December 2018 low near $3,206, and during the FTX-driven bottom in November 2022 around $15,792.
Each bear market has produced a smaller negative NUPL reading. The indicator fell to -0.58 in 2011, -0.22 in 2015, and roughly -0.15 in both the 2018 and 2022 cycles.
However, this cycle has yet to produce a negative reading on the 100-day EMA. Accordingly, that leaves two possibilities.
Either the indicator eventually drops below zero, as it did in previous cycles, or Bitcoin forms its first major cycle bottom without the signal.
For the indicator to turn negative, Bitcoin’s price may need to fall once again. Bitcoin has already dropped 53% from its October 2025 peak of $126,200. However, that decline is still smaller than the drawdowns of up to 90% seen in previous cycles.
Loss-Holding Bitcoin Addresses Remain Below Past Bear Market Levels
Separately, market watcher Cyclop pointed to another historical bottom indicator that tracks the percentage of Bitcoin addresses holding coins at a loss.
According to the observation, 34% of Bitcoin addresses are currently underwater. That is well below the roughly 55% recorded at the 2018 market bottom and around 50% during the 2022 bear market low.
This could mean Bitcoin faces more downside or an extended period of weakness before a final cycle bottom appears.
BTC Historical Signals Are Not Guarantees
Ultimately, these indicators are based on historical trends rather than certainty. Some industry commentators believe this cycle is different because Bitcoin has become a more mature asset. As a result, historical patterns may not repeat, and the massive drawdowns seen in previous cycles may not occur again.
Those who hold this view believe the $58,000 price low in June 2026 could mark the market’s bottom. Bitcoin is already up more than 7% from that low.
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