Market analyst EGRAG has outlined a bold scenario for XRP future trajectory, highlighting the potential for an explosive move toward $200.
The analysis is based on a monthly linear regression model plotted on a logarithmic scale. It suggests that XRP is once again approaching a critical inflection point.
The model is also supported by an R-squared value of 0.84754, which indicates a strong statistical fit, according to EGRAG. In other words, nearly 85% of XRP price historical movements can be explained within this framework, providing confidence in the long-term projections.
XRP’s History of Hits, Misses, and Overshoots
EGRAG noted that the XRP price has historically respected the regression channel, with three notable “hits” at the upper boundary. In one cycle, XRP price overshot the line by 570%, referring to the 2017/2018 price explosion. Meanwhile, in 2021, it fell short of the target by 45%.
EGRAG XRP monthly chart
EGRAG XRP monthly chartThese precedents create three potential scenarios for the current cycle. According to EGRAG, a standard hit would lift XRP price to $27, while a repeat of the 2021 miss would limit gains to around $18. The most ambitious case, however, involves another major overshoot, which could send XRP skyrocketing toward $200.
XRP Price Cycle 3 in Motion
The current cycle, which began after the 2021 peak, is progressing within the same regression trend. With XRP price now trading closer to the midrange, the model indicates growing upward pressure as the market heads toward its next phase.
EGRAG noted that since the regression line is trending higher over time, even conservative targets will increase gradually. Still, it is the overshoot scenario that captures the imagination of XRP holders, as history shows that the asset has been capable of such extraordinary moves before.
While an exact outcome remains uncertain, the analysis frames a range of possibilities between $18 and $200. The latter represents a best-case overshoot, and though ambitious, it reflects XRP’s historical capacity to outperform expectations.
Notably, the XRP price is currently under selling pressure, with the coin trading at $2.81, down 7.3% over the past week. The move to $200 from here would require a price growth of 7,017%. Meanwhile, the more conservative outlook of $18 demands a surge of 540%.
It is worth mentioning that the $200 price forecast would give XRP a market cap of approximately $12 trillion.
“Just Theory, Nothing Real”
The potential outcome has caused many to challenge EGRAG’s ambitious price projection. One X user, “Cryptonardo,” dismissed his analysis as purely theoretical, claiming that it is far from realistic for the XRP price.
He criticized the projection, stressing that even reaching $27 would give XRP a market cap of over $1.6 trillion, something he considers far-fetched, much less an outlook calling for a $200 price. He argued that such a projection is highly unlikely given the current levels of adoption, liquidity, and competition.
Meanwhile, EGRAG maintained that a potential market cap does not mean XRP must attract trillions before reaching that price. Instead, the valuation is based on a multiplier effect.
Still, Cryptonardo maintained that XRP realistically cannot have a market cap that surpasses that of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Think About XRP Money To Market Cap Multiplier follow @ZachRector7 his good in explaining it.
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) August 27, 2025
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
