A market analyst believes XRP is following the same pattern Bitcoin observed after its spot ETFs launched, which could lead to an impressive recovery push.
Canary Capital XRP ETF (XRPC) recently launched as the first pure spot XRP-based ETF product, and its performance beat expectations. Specifically, the product saw over $58 million in volume on its debut, the largest for any ETF launch this year. In addition, XRPC brought in $245 million in inflows, only 8% short of the BlackRock Ethereum ETF debut flows.
Despite this impressive performance, the XRP price has not been particularly favorable. For context, on Nov. 13, when the product launched, XRP collapsed 2.78%, building on a bearish run that began on Nov. 11. XRP extended its losses with a 3.37% drop on Nov. 14, eventually losing the $2.3 level, as it closed the day at $2.24.
Bitcoin Price Action After ETF Debut
Now, amid this downtrend, market analyst EGRAG has presented what many XRP investors may regard as a silver lining. According to EGRAG, XRP is following a pattern that Bitcoin (BTC), the OG cryptocurrency, observed immediately after its spot ETFs debuted. Interestingly, if this is true, then XRP could be preparing for a rapid recovery.
EGRAG claimed that after Bitcoin got its first spot ETFs, it initially collapsed by 20%. Market data corroborates this claim. Notably, when the spot products launched on Jan. 11, 2024, the BTC price had hit a peak of $49,000. Despite these products recording massive inflows on their first two trading days, the price of Bitcoin reacted negatively.
Surprisingly, BTC collapsed 7.66% on Jan. 12, 2024. At the time, this represented its largest intraday decline in 14 months. By the time this downtrend concluded, Bitcoin had collapsed to $38,518 on Jan. 23, a one-month low. This marked a 21% decline less than two weeks after the spot ETFs launched.
Interestingly, what followed was an explosive recovery. Specifically, from the $38,518 low, the Bitcoin price first soared to a peak of $73,734 by March 2024, representing a 91% increase, before cooling. After a series of upswings and declines, BTC eventually hit a new peak of $126,198 on Oct. 6 before the latest drop. This ATH represented a 227% from the $38,518 floor.
XRP Following a Similar Pattern?
Now, EGRAG suggests XRP may be trailing this path. If this proves true, then XRP could still face steeper declines from here. Data from EGRAG’s chart shows that a 20% drop from the ETF debut price would lead to a low of $2 for XRP.
However, if its recovery leads to a 230% rebound from that low, this will result in a price of $6.6. Nonetheless, this remains speculative, and XRP may not particularly follow this pattern.
Meanwhile, the $6 target has been a recurring theme within the XRP community. For instance, after the U.S. SEC filed a notice of appeal in the Ripple case in early October 2024, XRP faced a decline. However, EGRAG claimed that even if XRP failed to rally substantially due to the case, the worst-case scenario places its price at $6.5.