Bitcoin commentator Quinten Francois recently argued that just a few strong trading days can make up most of BTC’s gains in a month.
Francois shared a chart showing Bitcoin’s monthly returns and what those returns would look like if the four best-performing days were removed. His point is that trying to perfectly time when to buy and sell Bitcoin can be risky.
Recent Examples
In August 2026, Bitcoin gained 24.9% for the month. But without its four best days, the gain would have been only 0.5%. In November 2024, Bitcoin gained 37.1%. Removing the four strongest days reduced the gain to 4%.
Earlier Examples
The difference was even bigger during some previous Bitcoin rallies:
- March 2023: Bitcoin gained 23.2%, but fell 8.3% when the four best days were removed.
- February 2021: Bitcoin gained 36.8%, but returned -5.2% without those four days.
- April 2020: Bitcoin gained 34.5%, compared with -1.9% after removing the four strongest days.
- May 2019: Bitcoin gained 62.5%, while the return was 2.6% without the four best days.
- December 2017: Bitcoin gained 39.3%, but the return dropped to -22.6% after removing those days.
The examples show that a small number of very strong trading days can have a major impact on Bitcoin’s overall monthly performance.
X User Questions the Interpretation
The figures drew criticism from X user @b0tmkr, who said the analysis does not tell the full story because it only removes Bitcoin’s best-performing days. The user argued that removing only positive outliers can give a misleading picture of Bitcoin’s returns.
The criticism is mainly about the method used. The chart looks at what happens when investors miss Bitcoin’s four best days. It does not consider what would happen if they also missed the market’s worst days.
Francois responded that his main point was simply that a large share of Bitcoin’s gains can happen in just a few days. He said this is why investors who stay out of the market could miss some of its biggest moves.
Time in the Market vs. Timing the Market
This idea is similar to the common investment saying: “Time in the market beats timing the market.”
Investors who try to avoid market drops have to make two decisions correctly: when to sell and when to buy again. If they miss a strong recovery, their returns can suffer.
A Bank of Singapore analysis published in February 2025 also found that missing a small number of the market’s strongest periods can significantly reduce long-term returns. This shows how difficult it can be to predict short-term market moves.
Bitcoin’s August performance is a good example. Someone who was out of the market during Bitcoin’s four strongest days would have captured only a small part of the month’s total gain.
Bitcoin Reaches $87,300
Bitcoin rose to $87,300 on Tuesday, its highest level since January. The rally has renewed attention on the crypto market as many now believe the bull market is resuming.
Bitcoin was trading around $85,500 at the time of writing, up 4.4% over the past 24 hours and 11% over the past week. Now, its year-to-date loss has narrowed to about 2.3%, although it is still down around 23% over the past year.
The latest move also adds to Bitcoin’s recovery from its recent low. In particular, Bitcoin has gained about 51% from its low roughly two months earlier.