XRP has fallen below its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), raising concerns that it is forming a lower price base similar to the pattern seen in 2022.
Analyst ChartNerd said XRP’s recent drop came after it failed to break back above $1.52, a level he previously identified as important. He warned that XRP will continue falling in the coming months.
ChartNerd said XRP has been rejected at the 50-week EMA. However, he believes the outlook will improve if XRP moves back above that level.
XRP is currently trading around $1.40, down 3.4% in the past 24 hours and 6.12% over the past week. It traded at $1.5222 two days ago, meaning it has since fallen about 8%.
XRP Price Shows Similarities to 2022
Analyst ChartNerd says XRP is showing clear similarities to its 2022 price pattern. In a September 29 post, he said XRP would form a higher low below the 50-week EMA before making a bigger move higher. At the time, he expected XRP to eventually rise to $1.80–$2.
However, he warned that XRP would spend more time trading below the weekly EMA first. XRP had already been moving sideways below the 50-week EMA for about six weeks.
ChartNerd said this setup is creating a “higher low base” similar to the one XRP formed in 2022. He stressed that this pattern is not necessarily bearish and could actually be a positive sign.
The latest chart shows similarities between XRP’s 2022 and 2026 price patterns. In both cases, XRP moved below a falling 50-week EMA and then started forming higher lows.
The 2022 pattern was followed by a major price increase. XRP has not yet produced the same confirmation this time.
$1.52 Remains an Important Level
The 50-week EMA is the main level ChartNerd is watching. XRP failed to move back above $1.52 and has since fallen to around $1.40. ChartNerd says XRP will fall further and spend more time building a new price base in the fourth quarter.
However, if XRP moves back above the 50-week EMA, his bullish outlook will return. A move above the EMA will also bring back his previous $1.80–$2 target.
What Other Analysts Think About XRP Price
Other analysts have also identified important levels for XRP. Ali Martinez sees a long-term bullish setup, but says XRP first needs a monthly close above $3.66 to confirm a breakout toward $9.49 and potentially $31.87.
Peter Brandt, meanwhile, sees a possible move toward $2.16 based on an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. However, he warns that XRP faces strong resistance and selling pressure from the mid-$1.60s to above $3.
These views suggest that while some analysts remain bullish on XRP’s longer-term potential, the cryptocurrency still needs to reclaim key resistance levels before a stronger recovery can be confirmed.