Bitcoin Could Bottom Early if Fed Avoids More Rate Hikes, Grayscale Says

Bitcoin’s current bear market could persist until September or October if its historical four-year cycle remains intact, according to asset manager Grayscale, which noted that previous downturns typically reached their lowest point roughly one year after the market peak and recorded average declines of about 80%.

Despite citing the historical pattern, Grayscale said it places greater emphasis on macroeconomic conditions when assessing Bitcoin’s outlook. The firm argued that the cryptocurrency has evolved into a more mature asset, with its performance increasingly influenced by broader economic growth and real interest rates rather than cycle-based models alone.

Under that framework, Grayscale said Bitcoin may have already established a market bottom if the U.S. economy continues to show resilience and the Federal Reserve refrains from implementing additional interest rate hikes.

The firm’s assessment highlights the growing role of macroeconomic factors in shaping Bitcoin’s price trajectory, even as long-term market participants continue to monitor historical cycle patterns for signs of the next phase in the digital asset’s market cycle.

Source: Grayscale