Bitcoin Rebound Is Not Yet a Broader Trend Reversal, Glassnode Says

Bitcoin remains in a capitulation regime under Glassnode’s on-chain models, trading below both the roughly $68,500 Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and the $75,800 True Market Mean.

The 90-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stands at 0.75, remaining above the sub-0.5 level historically associated with seller exhaustion. Relative Unrealized Loss peaked at about 25%, compared with levels exceeding 60% in previous cycles.

Signs of demand have improved in parts of the market, with demand for perpetual futures turning positive and exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows stabilizing. The Coinbase Premium, however, remains negative, indicating U.S. spot demand has yet to recover meaningfully.

Glassnode said any Bitcoin rebound should be treated as a local rally rather than a broader trend reversal until yields ease and the profit/loss ratio moves back toward 2.

Source: glassnode