Nearly 130,000 Wallets Lost Money in Polymarket’s World Cup Prediction Market

A majority of traders in Polymarket’s World Cup winner prediction market incurred losses, according to an on-chain analysis shared by pseudonymous crypto researcher defioasis.eth.

The researcher found that nearly 130,000 of the market’s more than 194,000 unique trading addresses—about 66.7% of all participants—closed their positions at a loss, indicating that profitable outcomes were concentrated among a relatively small group of users. 

While most losing addresses forfeited less than $100, the biggest setbacks were significantly larger. The analysis showed that 43 wallet addresses each lost more than $100,000, with their combined losses exceeding $15 million. 

Profits were similarly concentrated at the top end. Only 54 addresses generated gains of over $100,000 each, collectively earning more than $22 million, underscoring the uneven distribution of returns in the prediction market.

Source: defioasis.eth