VanEck Sees Bitcoin Near Accumulation as Capitulation Signals Mount

Bitcoin may be approaching or already entering an accumulation phase after a prolonged market decline, VanEck said, with eight of the 12 capitulation indicators it tracks still triggering as of Aug. 12. 

The asset manager identified September through November as a potential window for a turning point based on historical Bitcoin cycles. The cryptocurrency’s drawdown from its October 2025 peak is now in its 10th month.

Capitulation conditions have appeared broadly across VanEck’s framework during the downturn. All 12 of its monitored indicators entered capitulation territory at some stage over the past three months. 

The historical record, however, provides limited evidence for a rapid recovery after such signals. VanEck’s backtests found that returns did not beat the Bitcoin baseline over the subsequent three- or six-month periods, with Bitcoin outperforming the baseline only at the one-year horizon.

Longer-term holders reduced their Bitcoin balances during the latest 30-day period. Holdings aged more than a year stood at 11.84 million BTC after shrinking by roughly 357,000 BTC over 30 days, leaving them at 59.1% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility eased to 27.2% during the period, alongside roughly $663 million of net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs.

Source: VanEck