Crypto lawyer predicts slim chances of SEC’s victory, emphasizing the importance of fair notice and potential middle-ground ruling in Ripple lawsuit.
In light of Ripple’s recent victory against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), prominent XRP lawyer John Deaton shared his predictions regarding the ongoing lawsuit, shedding light on the potential outcomes.
With a focus on the percentages, Deaton outlined the possibilities and implications of a ruling by Judge Analisa Torres. He believed a complete victory for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is improbable, assigning it a probability of less than three percent.
Conversely, Deaton estimated a 25 percent chance of a clean victory for Ripple, where the judge would not consider early XRP sales as a violation.
Issues Around XRP Secondary Sale
However, the most significant point of contention, according to Deaton, is whether the judge will allow the jury to decide if Ripple had fair notice.
The lawyer noted that the issue holds great importance for the XRP community, with over 76,000 XRP holders joining as Amicus and submitting a brief emphasizing the alleged secondary market sales, as previously reported by The Crypto Basic.
Deaton expressed concern and disappointment, stating that he would be shocked if Judge Torres ignored the secondary market sales argument. He firmly believed XRP itself would be deemed not a security.
Even if the judge ruled that Ripple violated the law, Deaton argued that it would not apply to secondary market sales. In a potential scenario where the judge takes a middle-ground approach, Deaton proposed a 50 percent chance.
The lawyer envisioned a ruling where sales before 2018 would comply with the Howey test, while ongoing and future secondary market sales would not be classified as securities.
According to Deaton, this outcome would be a complete win for Ripple, as it would pave the way for a settlement post-ruling.
When asked about the finality of the judge’s ruling, Deaton clarified that a ruling by the judge does not necessarily conclude the case. Instead, it could determine whether the case proceeds to a jury trial.
Notably, the judge has the option to end the case by declaring an outright win for either party or allowing it to move forward to a jury trial.
Ultimately, Deaton’s assessment of the possible outcomes revealed the Ripple lawsuit’s intricacies, where an outright victory for either Ripple or the SEC is unlikely.