Top Legal Expert Gives Date for 3 Possible Outcomes in Ripple Vs SEC

Prominent legal expert Jeremy Hogan analyzes three possible outcomes of the ongoing legal tussle between the SEC and Ripple Labs. 

Top legal experts have continued to analyze the next possible outcome of the SEC v. Ripple legal dispute following the recent court ruling in the case. 

Recall that U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres recently denied the SEC’s request to certify an interlocutory appeal. Following the ruling, the XRP community has been speculating on the next scenario in the lawsuit. 

Reacting, Attorney Jeremy Hogan, a Partner at Hogan & Hogan Law Firm, took to the X platform to outline three possible outcomes of the legal tussle.  

I'm seeing some confusion as to what could happen next in the Ripple v. SEC case now that the Judge denied an interlocutory appeal.

Sooo, I have outlined every possibility and provided the exact chance of each possibility happening and how long each would take. Exactly.

1/356 pic.twitter.com/LfOi2xEsLa

— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) October 8, 2023

According to Attorney Hogan, since the judge denied the SEC’s interlocutory appeal request, the regulator has complete right to appeal after the final judgment. 

SEC Continues Trial Against Ripple Execs 

It bears mentioning that the court has already scheduled a trial for April 23, 2024, to resolve the SEC’s dispute against Ripple execs – Chris Larsen (Chairman) and Brad Garlinghouse (CEO). 

Per Hogan, the chances of the SEC moving forward with the trial against Ripple’s execs is 39.456%. In the event that the SEC goes to trial, Attorney Hogan speculates that an appeal in the case will not be filed until 2025. He added that the Second Circuit ruling will be issued around 2026. 

Furthermore, the legal expert noted that if the SEC pushes the entire case to trial and then appeals the parts of the summary judgment it lost, a final resolution will occur on June 14, 2027. 

So, the SEC wants to push the entire case to trial and then appeal the parts of the judgment against Ripple it doesn't like?

Fair enough, but the most likely outcome in that situation is a final resolution in 2027. June 14, 2027 to be exact.

Good luck with that.

— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) October 8, 2023

SEC Settles Case Against Ripple Execs for Faster Appeal 

Attorney Hogan said the best route for the SEC would require the commission to settle the case against Ripple execs and obtain a final judgment before appealing. The lawyer puts the possibility of this scenario happening at 32.113%. 

“This is the SEC’s best option. For that reason, I doubt they do it,” said Attorney Hogan. 

If the SEC settles with individual defendants, Attorney Hogan said the lawsuit could get to an appellate court about 9-12 months faster. 

After the SEC settles with Ripple execs, the next phase is the remedies litigation, a proceeding Hogan forecasts will linger until August 14, 2026. 

Full Settlement 

The third scenario in the SEC v. Ripple lawsuit, as highlighted by Attorney Hogan, could see the parties agree on a settlement. Here, the SEC will completely settle its case against Ripple Labs and the individual defendants. 

According to Hogan, a settlement could happen at the conference mandated by the court. However, Hogan said the SEC has not shown any interest in settling the dispute. Consequently, the lawsuit has an 18.987% chance of settling. 

“Settlement is a good option for the SEC. It gets to publish another ‘win’ and collect a big, big check from the bad guys,” he said. 

Meanwhile, Attorney Hogan speculated that a settlement could occur on December 21, 2023.