Data from the popular decentralized prediction platform Polymarket shows that the odds of an XRP ETF getting approved in 2025 have increased to 70%.
Notably, this poll was launched four days ago. Since then, the crypto community has continued to bet aggressively on the chances of the XRP product coming to fruition this year. In particular, this latest figure signifies a massive 20% uptick in the last 24 hours.
Additionally, a much older poll launched early last month asked about the odds of XRP ETF approval by July 31, 2025. Currently, this poll indicates a 49% chance.
Optimism Around XRP ETF
Meanwhile, some community members have even expressed that by the end of the first quarter of the year, the odds of the last poll showing a 70% chance will rise to 100%.
The ongoing confidence in an XRP ETF is fueled by the arrival of a crypto-friendly U.S. government and the appointment of a pro-crypto SEC chairman, Paul Atkins.
Notably, the SEC is currently reviewing four applications for XRP ETFs. Prominent asset managers who have launched these XRP products include 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and WisdomTree.
Bitwise opened the floor in October 2024, and others followed shortly after. Community members believe the XRP investment products have a better shot at approval with the new SEC leadership than they did under Gary Gensler’s tenure.
Other Altcoins See Significant ETF Betting Odds
Interestingly, the XRP ETF is not the only product on which crypto market participants are betting. The Polymarket platform has listings for ongoing betting odds for Dogecoin, Litecoin, and Solana ETFs.
Notably, the betting odds for Solana ETF approval in 2025 stand at 82%, up by 32% over the past day. This poll went live at the same time as the one currently reading 70% positive for XRP ETF. In other words, this suggests greater confidence in Solana ETF and XRP ETF among community members.
Meanwhile, Dogecoin and Litecoin are currently seeing lower chances of 23% and 42% for their ETF approval odds, respectively, suggesting that market participants see the arrival of their ETFs in 2025 as a long shot.
Bloomberg ETF Analyst Reacts
Commenting on the ongoing betting frenzy, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expressed amazement that people can now bet on several altcoin ETF approvals. “What a country,” he said.
He added that he’s not sure if he agrees with these odds, but for the record, there are no active 19b-4 filings for any of these ETFs yet, and typically, it takes 240 days for approval—meaning it would be beyond July. However, he acknowledged that the new SEC leadership could act faster.
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