Solana breaking under $200 reveals the growing influence of bears over the price trend. Will this result in a quick downfall to $175 or is a bull run signal hiding in plain sight?
As Bitcoin broke under the $97,000 support, Solana lost its critical psychological mark at $200. Amid the growing uncertainty in the crypto market, the pullback in Solana warns of a deeper correction.
However, the underlying technicals hint at a potential comeback if the broader market stabilizes. Should you consider purchasing Solana at discounted prices in hopes of a breakout rally?
Solana Reveals A Falling Channel Pattern in Play
In the 4-hour price trend, SOL price action reveals a falling channel pattern. Within this bearish structure, Solana has dipped from its swing high of $295 to the current market price of $193.53. This marks a 35% price drop over the past three weeks.
Furthermore, the recent bearish candle breached the 23.60% Fibonacci level, breaking the bullish dominance at the $200 psychological level.
Despite the bearish trend, the 4-hour RSI line reveals a bullish divergence. This significant bullish divergence hints at a potential positive rally within the channel pattern.
Along with RSI, the MACD indicator shows the signal line and the MACD line on the verge of a positive crossover. Thus, the technical indicators maintain an optimistic outlook on the upcoming Solana price trend.
Solana ETF Speculation: 84% Approval Chance in 2025
Adding to the underlying optimism for Solana, PolyMarket users anticipate a Solana ETF approval in 2025. Recent data shows PolyMarket users expect an 84% chance of Solana ETF approval this year.
A potential approval would likely drive liquidity into the market, boosting Solana’s market price. Hence, any positive development regarding a Solana ETF could create bullish ripples in the SOL price trend.
PumpFun’s Supply Surge: A Bearish Risk for SOL?
Despite growing bullish signals, constant supply surges from PumpFun fuel bearish pressure within the channel pattern.
According to a recent X post from OnchainLens, PumpFun has deposited 114,285 SOL tokens to Kraken, worth nearly $27 million. Since the beginning of 2025, PumpFun has transferred a total of 1,021,162 SOL tokens worth $208.32 million.
In total, PumpFun’s complete holdings amount to 2.72 million SOL tokens, valued at approximately $525.81 million.
If PumpFun decides to cash out its entire position, it could result in a massive supply dump, negatively impacting Solana’s price momentum.
Solana Price Targets
As Solana looks to reclaim the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $196.48, the bullish signals from technical indicators suggest a potential recovery above $200. With this momentum, SOL will likely challenge the overhead trendline near the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $211.
If the broader market recovers, a breakout rally in Solana could target the 78.6% Fibonacci level above the $250 psychological mark. On the other hand, a bearish continuation could push SOL down to the crucial $175 support level.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
