Bitcoin Price Driven by ETF Flow and Open Interest, Not Network Activity: Analyst

An analyst has argued that the recent Bitcoin price pump was driven by ETF flows and open interest rather than network activity.

Notably, despite the recent impressive price surge in the crypto market, the spotlight has quickly shifted from Bitcoin’s performance to an unexpected catalyst.

The U.S. President’s team announced that the top holders of the Trump (TRUMP) meme coin would attend a special dinner with President Trump, igniting a frenzy of buying activity for the coin. However, as the frenzy cooled, Bitcoin and top altcoin momentum cooled with it.

As the markets cooled, crypto influencer DonAlt took to X to critique the market’s behavior. He pointed out that the recent rally in Trump coin coincided with a sudden cooling in the market’s momentum, suggesting that there is still insufficient buying power to support multiple narratives simultaneously.

In response, a CryptoQuant analyst emphasized this point by citing data that showed the Bitcoin network is essentially a “ghost town.”

Bitcoin Network Is a Ghost Town

Specifically, analyst Maartunn from CryptoQuant argued that the current Bitcoin price surge was driven mainly by institutional factors rather than on-chain demand. 

He suggested that while Bitcoin’s price has risen sharply, the network activity index has not followed suit. According to Maartunn, this indicates that external forces, such as ETF flows and open interest in futures markets, are propelling the price rather than an increase in on-chain activities.

The Bitcoin Network is a ghost-town ☠️

This pump is driven by:
– ETF Flows
– Open Interest

There is hardly any new visible on-chain demand. https://t.co/ceFuk9Wtnq pic.twitter.com/DmoXbxhxXx

— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) April 24, 2025

In his analysis, Maartunn uses a 365-day Moving Average to smooth out the network activity index, allowing for a clearer view of longer-term trends. From 2015 onward, the chart shows a steady increase in network activity, which generally aligned with Bitcoin’s price growth. 

However, a noticeable divergence begins around 2025. While Bitcoin’s price continues to rise, the growth rate of network activity slows significantly, with more fluctuations to the downside. This indicates that the rise in Bitcoin’s price is not matched by a similar increase in network activity, suggesting that external factors, rather than organic demand, drive the price movements.

Bitcoin ETF and OI Data

Data from Farside confirmed that Bitcoin ETFs saw a sharp rise in inflows starting April 17, with inflows reaching $381 million by April 21. By April 23, the total inflows had surged to $917 million, continuing the bullish momentum.

Notably, these inflows coincided with a surge in Bitcoin price, which peaked above $94,000 on April 23.

Since inception, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen a cumulative $37.7 billion in net inflows, indicating that institutional players continue to drive much of the demand for Bitcoin.

In parallel to the ETF flows, open interest in Bitcoin futures has also surged. Open interest increased from approximately $24 billion on April 20 to over $27 billion by April 24, according to data from Coinalyze.

This uptick in open interest suggests growing institutional participation, further supporting that Bitcoin’s recent price surge is linked to external market factors.

Contrasting On-chain Data

On the on-chain end, data from IntoTheBlock shows a decline in key metrics such as network activity and active addresses. Over the past week, network activity decreased by 0.94%, while the number of active addresses dropped by 1.51%. 

Moreover, zero-balance addresses declined significantly by 12.59%, indicating that inactive addresses are on the rise. This decrease in active user engagement suggests that the market rally is fueled by factors outside the core network’s usage.