Bitcoin dominance has claimed a high last seen in the previous bull run, leading to discussions around a potential altcoin season.
Notably, Bitcoin dominance surged to a new four-year high, reaching 64.94% today, May 2. This peak, the highest since January 2021, is a product of Bitcoin’s recent strong performance.
Bitcoin Dominance up 13% Since December 2024
Specifically, since April 21, Bitcoin’s price has climbed from $85,197 to a peak of $97,470 on May 1, maintaining levels above $97,000 at the time of writing. This price surge, along with relatively slower growth in altcoins, has boosted Bitcoin dominance.
Nonetheless, this builds on an uptrend that has persisted since last December. The dominance rate has risen from 57.22% in December 2024, gaining over 13% in five consecutive months.
However, this rise has now brought Bitcoin dominance into a historically significant resistance zone around the 65% mark. In the previous bull market of 2021, dominance at this level triggered a sharp reversal.
Back then, Bitcoin dominance touched a near four-year high of 73.63% in early January 2021 but quickly fell, closing the month at 63.09%.
Interestingly, February 2021 saw a short-lived rebound to 64.83%, but resistance held firm, and dominance eventually plummeted to 39.56% by September 2021. That drop, which lasted for over seven months, coincided with the explosive growth of altcoins, leading to the altcoin season.
What the Recent Bitcoin Dominance Peak Means for Alt Season
Now, Bitcoin dominance is again testing that barrier. The monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for dominance has reached an all-time high of 72.22, signaling overbought conditions. Historically, such levels have preceded pullbacks.
If Bitcoin dominance fails to break this resistance, a correction could ensue. The first significant support lies at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of 59.35%, followed by the next major support at 54.97%.
If this level also falters, dominance could retreat toward the 48.81% region, aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci level. A pullback of this magnitude would likely translate to the long-anticipated altcoin season, during which altcoins outperform Bitcoin.
Analysts Expect Imminent Altcoin Season
Several prominent analysts have discussed the potential turning point for altcoins. For instance, Michaël van de Poppe, the founder of MN Consultancy, has been vocal about the resilience and prospects of the altcoin market.
On April 16, he noted that the altcoin season index had reached its lowest point in two years, coinciding with a sharp drop in the fear and greed index. He emphasized that market sentiment felt grim, which he viewed as a contrarian indicator that shows a potential turning point toward recovery.
The #Altcoin season index is the lowest in the past 2 years.
The fear & greed index has dropped down massively as well.
It feels terrible.
And that terrible feeling is usually a great indicator to do the exact opposite. pic.twitter.com/k59cmkHqd6
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 16, 2025
Three days ago, van de Poppe observed that the total market cap of altcoins was maintaining strength and had recently confirmed a successful retest. He suggested that this development laid the foundation for a move toward new all-time highs.
Meanwhile, pseudonymous trader Ak47 recently highlighted how the approval of altcoin-based ETFs in 2025 could contribute to the altcoin season. For context, according to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates, Litecoin and Solana have a 90% likelihood of ETF approval, while XRP stands at 85%.
Bloomberg Intelligence just dropped ETF approval odds for 2025:
▪️ 90% – $LTC & $SOL
▪️ 85% – $XRP
▪️ 80% – $DOGE & $HBAR
▪️ 75% – $DOT, $ADA, $AVAXIf this plays out, we’re in for one hell of an altcoin season! pic.twitter.com/Chrgnno0UN
— Ak47♛ (@HolaItsAk47) May 1, 2025
Dogecoin and Hedera Hashgraph are forecasted at 80%, and Polkadot, Cardano, and Avalanche each carry a 75% chance. These projections have triggered expectations for a robust altcoin season if these ETF products eventually secure approval.
Also, Crypto Tamil, another analyst, discussed the BTC.D chart today. He pointed out a bearish divergence on the daily Bitcoin dominance chart and argued that the metric is nearing its peak. He asserted that the conditions are favorable for a full-fledged altcoin season.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
