Analyst Says Dogecoin Breakout Above This Resistance Could Spark a New Bull Run

According to Ali Martinez, Dogecoin is facing a major resistance zone, and a breakout above it could trigger the start of a new bull run.

Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced a sharp upward movement beginning around May 10. Specifically, it climbed from approximately $0.20 to a weekly high near $0.249 by May 13–14. 

However, the rally met resistance shortly after, triggering a retracement that has since left DOGE consolidating around the $0.22 level. 

This price behavior has drawn attention from analysts tracking both technical and on-chain data.

Major Area of Resistance

One technical chart shared by market analyst Ali Martinez highlights a consistent resistance level on the 3-day timeframe that has affected Dogecoin’s trajectory since late 2024. This area rests between $0.25 and $0.26. Historical reactions to this zone show multiple instances of price rejection.

Notably, around December 2024, the area around $0.26 acted as strong support, allowing a bounce to higher levels. However, after DOGE fell below it in early 2025, the same zone, specifically between $0.25 and $0.26, flipped into formidable resistance.

Between February and March 2025, Dogecoin made several attempts to reach this level, all of which failed. Notably, in February, the price briefly surged over the $0.26 area, touching $0.28 but failed to sustain, leading to a downward movement that extended below $0.15.

Additionally, in March, the price tried to reach this level when it surpassed $0.19, but the momentum was too low even to reach the $0.26 resistance.

These failures featured upper wicks and small-bodied candles, indicating persistent selling pressure. During the most recent test in May 2025, DOGE reached a high of $0.24 but closed significantly lower at $0.2276, indicating that the resistance remains intact.

Martinez stated that a breakout above this level could potentially initiate a new bull run. He also advised market participants not to wait for the breakout to occur, but instead to prepare for it in advance.

On-Chain Data Shows Correlation with Price Movement

While price action faced rejection, further on-chain indicators tracked by Martinez offer insight into broader market behavior. From mid-April to mid-May 2025, transaction volume and whale activity showed notable increases.

DOGE’s transaction volume rose sharply in early May, peaking at approximately $1.07 billion by May 10. This spike aligned closely with the price surge, suggesting a rise in liquidity and interest from larger players.

Whale transactions, defined as those exceeding $1 million, also increased during this period. Activity began picking up from April 22 and peaked in two distinct phases—late April and mid-May. This pattern implies that large holders were active during the lead-up to and during the price surge, possibly positioning themselves early or influencing the move.

Spike in Daily Active Addresses 

In tandem with the rise in whale activity and transaction volume, the number of daily active addresses also surged. The increase began around May 13 and peaked near 69,000 addresses. 

However, by May 13–14, the count of active addresses dropped significantly, signaling a short-term cooldown in user activity. Despite this dip, Dogecoin’s price continues to trade well above earlier consolidation levels. This sustained position suggests that the network remains in a stronger structure than in previous months.

Whales Acquire 1 Billion DOGE

Yet another observation by Martinez points to a significant accumulation trend among large holders. Over the past month, whales have acquired more than 1 billion Dogecoin. As of May 15, the total holdings by these large addresses stand at approximately 25.97 billion DOGE.

Whales have bought over 1 billion #Dogecoin $DOGE in the past month! pic.twitter.com/VVzwO7yLnM

— Ali (@ali_charts) May 16, 2025