Bitcoin reached a new local peak on May 18, trading above $106,000, its highest point since January.
Interestingly, Bitcoin closed at $106,446 yesterday, marking BTC’s strongest weekly close on record. Previously, Bitcoin recorded its highest weekly close in January at $106,146, shortly after hitting an all-time high of $109,358 on January 20.
However, Bitcoin’s late-weekend rally was brief. The price fell sharply to $102,000, with the current price hovering around $102,761. This reflects a 0.89% dip over the last 24 hours and a 1.81% decline on the weekly scale. At its current price, Bitcoin is about 5% below its peak.
Notably, recent volatility in Bitcoin appears to follow key political developments in the U.S. Specifically, President Donald Trump’s legislative package, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” recently advanced out of the House Budget Committee.
This bill includes a proposed 5% tax on remittances sent abroad by non-citizens, raising concerns over cross-border capital flows and potentially driving interest in decentralized alternatives like Bitcoin.
Secondly, anticipated regulatory action may be influencing investor sentiment. This week, the U.S. Congress will review a long-awaited bill establishing a legal framework for stablecoin issuers. This bill signals a possible step toward integrating crypto into traditional financial regulation.
Volatility Drives Record-High Derivatives Activity
In the past week, Bitcoin traded within a narrow yet turbulent band of $101,000 to $106,000. This volatility coincided with a notable surge in derivatives activity, underscoring heightened market engagement.
According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin derivatives volume climbed 135.74% to reach $156.52 billion in the last 24 hours. This indicates a significant spike in trader participation.
Meanwhile, open interest rose modestly by 2.63%, totaling $68.12 billion. This increase, while measured, suggests that traders are opening new positions without signs of market overheating.
Options markets showed even more aggressive movement. Daily options volume jumped 341.75% to $4.67 billion, while options open interest advanced 2.51% to $39.58 billion.
Bidirectional Pressure as Market Adjusts
Alongside the derivatives spike, liquidation data revealed sharp shifts in trader sentiment. Over the last four hours, $34.10 million in positions were liquidated, with $32.99 million coming from longs.
This shows that sudden downside price action caught many bullish traders off guard. The 12-hour liquidation chart shows $113.47 million was wiped out, split between $65.60 million in long positions and $47.88 million in shorts.
However, 24-hour liquidation data indicated a broader bullish undertone. Despite total daily liquidations reaching $176.54 million, short positions accounted for $94.32 million, outpacing the $82.22 million in long liquidations.
This suggests that while price corrections are occurring, they are frequently met with upward momentum that pressures bearish traders.
Bitcoin’s Maturing Market Profile
Amid these developments, on-chain analyst Willy Woo shared insights into Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. He analyzed the compound annual growth rate (CAGR), highlighting a declining trend as Bitcoin absorbs more institutional capital.
Woo pointed out that Bitcoin’s CAGR exceeded 100% during earlier phases, particularly before 2017. However, post-2020, when corporations and sovereign entities began accumulating, the CAGR declined to 30–40%.
This trend continues downward as Bitcoin evolves into a large-scale macro asset. According to Woo’s data, Bitcoin is now viewed as a capital storage vehicle, with the expected long-term CAGR eventually settling around 8%.
People think BTC is like a magical unicorn that climbs to infinity on moonbeams. Here's the actual CAGR chart. We are well past the 2017 year where we'd see many 100s of percent growth.
Now look at 2020, that was the year BTC got institutionalised, corporations and sovereigns… pic.twitter.com/hcGAGZXkU5
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) May 18, 2025
He attributed this projection to macroeconomic growth levels, referencing global monetary expansion (5%) and GDP growth (3%) as baseline comparisons. As capital continues to flow into Bitcoin, Woo noted that this maturation could take up to 15–20 years, aligning with the observed reduction in annualized returns.
Meanwhile, industry leaders like Michael Saylor expect Bitcoin prices to hit $1 million per coin during this timeline.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
