Public companies adopting a Bitcoin treasury strategy may need to reconsider the approach if stock prices begin approaching net asset value, according to VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel.
The warning comes as concerns mount over the potential for shareholder dilution and value erosion in firms that aggressively raise capital to acquire Bitcoin.
Sigel emphasized that no public company holding Bitcoin in treasury has historically traded below its Bitcoin NAV for a sustained period. However, one firm is now nearing that threshold, signaling potential risks in the current strategy.
As Bitcoin continues to reach new highs in 2025, share prices for some companies have not followed suit, raising questions about the efficacy of this capital allocation model.
Dilution Risks Emerging Amid Falling Premiums
With some public companies persistently issuing equity through at-the-market (ATM) programs, Sigel noted that the traditional benefits of capital formation may be at risk. If a stock trades at or near its NAV, ongoing equity issuance may begin to dilute shareholder value rather than enhance it.
No public BTC treasury company has traded below its Bitcoin NAV for a sustained period.
But at least one is now approaching parity.
As some of these companies raise capital through large at-the-market (ATM) programs to buy BTC, a risk is emerging: If the stock trades at or near…
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) June 16, 2025
Semler Scientific, a notable example, has seen its share price decline by more than 45% this year despite Bitcoin’s upward momentum. This disconnect highlights the danger of relying on equity issuance when investor sentiment fails to reflect asset value. Sigel referred to this scenario as erosion—not capital formation—if such trends persist.
To mitigate this risk, he recommended safeguards such as pausing ATM programs for 10 trading days when share prices fall below 0.95 times NAV. He also advised prioritizing share buybacks when Bitcoin appreciates but equity prices lag. If a NAV discount continues, strategic reviews such as mergers, spin-offs, or ending the Bitcoin strategy should be considered.
Executive Compensation Under Scrutiny
Sigel also highlighted governance concerns, suggesting that executive compensation should be tied to NAV-per-share growth rather than total Bitcoin holdings or share issuance volume. He compared the current situation to earlier trends seen in the mining sector, where excessive issuance and elevated executive pay damaged long-term shareholder value.
While MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor has stated plans to buy back shares if they fall below 1x NAV, Sigel pointed out that not all companies have preferred shares available to support such moves. Still, he said all boards can take action by halting dilution and focusing on NAV-per-share growth as premiums fade.
Metaplanet and Strategy Continue Bitcoin Accumulation
Meanwhile, firms have continued building their Bitcoin position. Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich confirmed a recent purchase of 1,112 Bitcoin for $117.2 million by the firm, at an average price of $105,435.
Further, despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, signaled intentions for further purchases, based on Saylor’s most recent Bitcoin chart commentary.
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