Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are now sitting on unrealized profits last seen during the market correction in October 2024.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost recently highlighted this trend, pointing out a drop in profit margins despite Bitcoin’s recent price strength. His analysis indicates that the market still has room to run before it reaches the kind of overheated conditions that typically mark the end of a bull cycle.
Bitcoin LTHs Profit Margins Collapse
Darkfost centered his commentary on the MVRV ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to the average price at which long-term holders bought their coins.
Right now, that ratio sits around 220%, meaning LTHs are holding an average gain of 220%. This may sound high, but it falls well below the levels seen at the cycle’s earlier peaks.
In March 2024, when BTC reached a high of $74,000, the profit ratio climbed to 300%. Also, in December 2024, the ratio reached 357% when BTC claimed a price of $108,000. Now that Bitcoin has recovered to the $107,000 mark, the profit ratio has declined to 220%, largely due to LTHs buying at higher prices.
Specifically, Darkfost noted that the average cost basis for long-term holders now sits at $33,800. For context, this figure represents the average price at which these investors bought their Bitcoin. It is particularly important in understanding profit levels and market behavior.
Bitcoin Price if It Reclaims Past Profit Margins
Notably, from this cost basis, Bitcoin would need to rise to $135,200 to bring the MVRV ratio back to 300%, the same level seen in March. To match the 357% margin from December, the price would have to hit $154,400.
With this data, it is logical to conclude that the current unrealized profit level remains far below what investors saw during major tops in the cycle. If the market follows past patterns, Bitcoin likely hasn’t peaked yet.
Darkfost’s observations line up with what seasoned trader Peter Brandt predicted. Back in October 2024, Brandt said Bitcoin could top out at $135,000. However, in May 2025, after reassessing the market conditions, he adjusted his target to between $120,000 and $150,000, with a likely peak sometime between August and September 2025.
This updated projection fits into the price range Bitcoin needs to reach to restore those earlier MVRV ratios of 300% to 357%. The overlap confirms the view that the market still has more upside left.
Historical Bitcoin LTH Profit Margins
Meanwhile, historical numbers also show how low the current ratio is. For instance, in the 2017/2018 cycle, as Bitcoin hit $19,500 at its top in December 2017, long-term holders saw unrealized profits soar to 4,000%.
During the 2020/2021 cycle, in April 2021, profits for LTHs hit 1,229% when Bitcoin reached $63,000. However, this was not even the peak of that cycle. Bitcoin pushed to a new all-time high of around $68,000 in November 2021, but by then, LTH unrealized profits had fallen to 348%.
These figures show how low current profit levels still are. While 220% sounds big, it is modest in the context of past cycles. If long-term holders are going to enjoy the same kind of windfalls they did in the past, the price will need to climb back to the $135,200–$154,400 range in the months ahead.
Currently, Bitcoin changes hands at $107,045, trading flat over the past 24 hours.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
