With XRP holding firm above $3 after years of underwhelming performance, market excitement is intense about future possibilities.
However, while many focus on how high the token could climb, one analyst is asking a tougher question: how low could XRP fall in the next bear market?
EGRAG, a well-followed XRP chartist, has shared a sobering projection based on historical patterns and the psychology of crypto cycles. His analysis presents two scenarios that could unfold in the next bear market for XRP.
Scenario 1: $27 Top, followed by a $0.80 Crash
In EGRAG’s first scenario, XRP could rise as high as $27 in the coming months. He based this on a measured move from the yellow symmetrical triangle on the monthly chart. However, if history repeats, the aftermath could be brutal.
Using the same 97% drawdown witnessed after XRP’s 2017–2018 bull market peak, this scenario points to a potential bear market bottom of just around $0.80.
To put this in perspective, an investor holding 5,000 XRP bought at today’s price of $3 would see their portfolio grow to $135,000 if XRP reached $27. But in the projected bear market, that same portfolio could plummet to just $4,000.
EGRAG warns, “Can you handle that,” highlighting the emotional toll such volatility can have, even on seasoned holders.
Scenario 2: $9 Peak, $1.30 Buyback Zone
Meanwhile, a more conservative “Cycle 2” scenario sees XRP reaching $9, a level derived from the midpoint of the symmetrical triangle formation. In this case, applying an 85% decline, similar to the 2021–2022 drop, would bring XRP down to about $1.30.
EGRAG noted this level could become a buyback zone for investors looking to re-enter the market after the blow-off top.
Sub-$0.30 Not Off the Table
For long-term holders, EGRAG suggests that accumulating XRP below $0.30 remains a dream scenario, but not an impossible one. Historically, XRP has returned to its base levels after major market cycles, and this could happen again.
Despite the bearish projections, EGRAG remains confident that a final bullish surge is imminent. With XRP’s current consolidation above $3, he sees a setup for a potential vertical move.
“Bear Markets Are Over”
While EGRAG’s analysis outlines both bullish and bearish scenarios for XRP, a growing number of voices in the crypto industry believe that the historical cycle of bull and bear markets may now be a thing of the past.
Among those championing this view is Michael Saylor of Strategy, who recently stated on live TV that the “crypto winter” is not coming back. Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, and Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, share this sentiment.
They argue that the unprecedented level of institutional interest and continuous buying pressure make dramatic price drops increasingly unlikely.
Still, EGRAG insists that market cycles cannot be ignored. To him, everything is cyclical, even the universe itself. In parallel, everything that goes up must come down.
Notably, industry leaders acknowledge the potential for market corrections. Yet, they do not believe that the kind of historic drawdowns of up to 90% are feasible in the current environment.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
