A market technician has predicted when XRP could hit its top for the cycle, leveraging historical data around the Bitcoin halving.
Currently, XRP trades close to $3 as it struggles to lock in a solid base above this key level. While the price wavers in the short term, confidence in its long-term growth keeps improving.
Most recently, market analyst Diana explained why XRP could engineer its strongest rally yet in the coming weeks, projecting a peak above $20 in October 2025.
Bitcoin and XRP Price Action After Bitcoin Halvings
Diana built her argument on past Bitcoin halving cycles and XRP’s history. Notably, she called attention to the 2017 run as the initial case of this pattern. Specifically, in this cycle, after Bitcoin halved on July 9, 2016, it surged for over a year and hit a top above $19,000 on Dec. 18, 2017, exactly 527 days later.
Interestingly, XRP followed the same script but with a short delay, reaching its peak of $3.31 on Jan. 5, 2018, just 18 days after Bitcoin. Diana stressed that there was a pattern to these movements. Specifically, in this pattern, Bitcoin leads, and XRP erupts shortly afterward.
However, she then highlighted the 2021 cycle, which broke the rhythm for XRP. For context, Bitcoin halved on May 11, 2020, and hit its top of around $69,000 on Nov. 10, 2021, 548 days later.
Nonetheless, XRP could not keep pace. Notably, the SEC lawsuit that struck in late 2020 forced exchanges to delist it and stunted its rally. Instead of peaking alongside Bitcoin, XRP hit its high of $1.96 in April 2021, seven months early. Diana described this as a lost cycle where XRP never had the chance to follow its natural path.
XRP Now in a Better Position
Meanwhile, she argues that the stage has completely changed for 2025. The SEC case confirmed in July 2023 that XRP is not a security, lifting the cloud that had held XRP back.
U.S. exchanges reopened trading, and Ripple now continues to scale with products like RLUSD and new payment corridors. In addition, multiple ETF filings have emerged. She believes these developments have removed the impediments that kept XRP from reaching its full potential.
Possible XRP Cycle Top in October 2025
Considering this, and with the latest Bitcoin halving on April 20, 2024, she applied the same 527-day stretch from 2017. This lands Bitcoin’s likely peak on Sept. 29, 2025. Meanwhile, adding the familiar 18-day lag suggests XRP could top on Oct. 17, 2025. Diana stressed that this alignment could set up the perfect storm for XRP’s breakout.
She then presented three possible price outcomes. In a modest scenario, XRP could ride Bitcoin’s momentum to between $5 and $7. In her base case, which assumes ETF inflows and a stronger utility narrative, she expects a range of $10 to $15. If institutional liquidity pours in and triggers a blowoff rally, she sees XRP breaking past $20.
Speaking further, Diana highlighted that the biggest difference between 2017 and 2025 is maturity. Notably, the earlier run relied almost entirely on retail speculation, but the current setup involves regulatory clarity, Ripple’s expanding stablecoin efforts, growing ETF interest, and real-world adoption.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
