The XRP community now believes more than ever that a supply shock is imminent, and it could send XRP’s price soaring.
In a tweet, XRP community commentator and game developer Chad Steingraber predicted that only 21 million XRP may remain available for public trading in the near future.
The figure is strikingly similar to Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins. It stirred renewed optimism about what that could mean for XRP’s price, especially in light of Bitcoin’s current six-figure valuation.
Steingraber stressed that the active trading supply, not the total supply, is what determines price on exchanges. He suggested that XRP’s market price could dramatically expand if large portions of tokens remain locked away.
Why an XRP Supply Shock May Be Brewing
Steingraber’s comments came in response to Digital Asset Investor (DAI), who highlighted the ambitious goals of two major XRP-based projects.
Axelar’s mXRP aims to manage $10 billion worth of XRP, equivalent to approximately 5% of the current circulating supply. Meanwhile, Flare Networks’ FXRP plans to secure 5 billion XRP by mid-2026.
Together, these initiatives could lock up around 8 billion XRP, or roughly 13% of today’s circulating supply. DAI noted that just these two projects alone could trigger the kind of supply shock long speculated within the XRP community.
At the same time, this projected XRP lockup comes as exchange balances continue to shrink. For example, Coinbase’s XRP holdings have plunged from about 970 million tokens in June to only 32 million as of September 20.
Ripple controls 37 billion XRP in escrow, while co-founders and early investors collectively hold billions more.
Analysts estimate that retail investors likely control no more than 15% of the total supply, meaning the freely tradable float is already far smaller than the headline figures suggest.
XRP Price If Only 21 Million Are Freely Tradable
If Steingraber’s projection proves accurate and the active trading supply falls to just 21 million XRP, the price implications could be significant.
Assuming XRP’s current market cap of roughly $172 billion remains constant, the price per XRP would theoretically rise to around $8,190.
Of course, this scenario is purely hypothetical, as market cap would likely adjust in response to such a supply crunch. Nonetheless, it illustrates how dramatically price could respond to extreme scarcity.
For comparison, in August, the OKX exchange reduced the supply of its OKB token to just 21 million tokens to mimic Bitcoin’s scarcity. The team cut the token’s supply by over 52%, and what followed was a dramatic price surge.
OKB was trading at $44 as of August 4. By August 18, the price had surged to $201, a 357% increase in just two weeks.
In other words, a similar scenario for XRP could also have dramatic implications, especially if paired with significant institutional demand.
Institutional Buying
Institutional investors have already begun accumulating XRP. For example, Canadian asset manager 3iQ holds 45 million XRP, while the Purpose ETF owns 29.6 million XRP. About seven spot XRP ETFs may launch next month, all of which would directly invest in XRP.
In addition, companies like Trident Digital Tech, Webus International, VivoPower, and Wellgistics have disclosed plans to hold XRP as a reserve asset.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
