Here’s a Scenario Where XRP Could Reach $500, a Year After ETF Approval

XRP could witness one of its most bullish price changes as a lineup of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) awaits regulatory approval. 

Over the next few weeks, the U.S. SEC would rule on multiple filings for an XRP ETF from some of the biggest names in asset management. Specifically, Grayscale 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and others await a decision in October, while Franklin Templeton expects the SEC to rule on its filing in November.

Notably, market watchers expect these products to bolster demand, though no one knows exactly how much impact they will have. 

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A Model to Assess the Impact of XRP ETFs on Prices

As a result, Rob Cunningham of the KUWL show recently presented a scenario with help from ChatGPT and shared his results. He looked at the effect of $17 billion flowing into XRP ETFs within 12 months, or about $1 billion per product.

Cunningham’s model assumed there was a float of 5 billion XRP tokens in circulation, excluding Ripple’s escrow, institutional treasuries, and locked commitments. At a starting price of $3 per token, this float would equal a market value of $15 billion. Now, if $17 billion from the ETF products chase that supply, demand would exceed the float’s value in a single year.

Essentially, if buyers tried to purchase XRP at $3, they could grab 5.7 billion tokens, but the market only offers 5 billion. This would force prices higher until the float matches demand. 

In a purely mathematical scenario where every token is instantly available, XRP would rise to $3.40. However, the reality is often different. Specifically, many holders resist selling at low prices, and thin liquidity means even modest orders can drive prices up sharply.

Cunningham called attention to lessons from gold and Bitcoin ETFs, noting that prices don’t climb slowly under these conditions. Instead, they reset quickly. 

Possible XRP ETF Impact on Price

His base case, where most of the float remains liquid, points to $8 to $15. Meanwhile, if only 20% to 40% of tokens trade, XRP could jump to $20 to $35. 

However, in the tightest scenario, where just 10% to 15% of supply hits the market, prices could soar higher. He set a conservative range at $8 to $12 over 12 months, a stronger range at $20 to $30, and an extreme case above $50.

Speaking further, he also stressed that ETFs change the game because they anchor long-term institutional demand. Should $17 billion enter the market with just 5 billion freely available tokens, XRP could realistically settle in double-digit territory, somewhere in the $10 to $30 range.

A Scenario Where XRP Hits $500+

Then Cunningham added a second point: the FOMO effect. He argued that if ETFs push XRP higher, banks, registered investment advisors, institutions, and retail investors could chase in. This reflexive demand would exceed ETF inflows. 

According to him, U.S. banks control about $22 trillion in assets, global advisors manage $115 trillion, and American households hold more than $5 trillion in savings. Even a 0.5% allocation across these pools would translate to $110 billion from banks, $575 billion from advisors, and $25 billion from retail. This totals over $700 billion combined.

With only 5 billion tokens in circulation, the market couldn’t absorb even a fraction of that demand without skyrocketing. In this model, ETFs act as the trigger, but the true market impact comes from global capital rushing in once momentum builds.

Without this broader rush, XRP could land between $8 and $30 in the first year. With widespread FOMO, it could climb to $50 to $150. If systemic allocations take hold across banks and advisors, XRP could break into a $200 to $500 range.