Here’s XRP Price if XRP ETFs Get Only Half of Bitcoin ETF 2025 Inflows

The XRP price could jump to greater heights if, after approval, XRP ETFs get only half of the 2025 inflows from Bitcoin ETFs in two years.

Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has not ruled on multiple XRP spot ETFs despite their deadlines. For perspective, several filings, including those from Grayscale, 21Shares, and Bitwise, had deadlines ranging from Oct. 18 to Oct. 20. 

XRP ETFs Prospects Still Bullish

Meanwhile, others such as CoinShares, WisdomTree, and Franklin Templeton have later deadlines. However, with the government shutdown still in effect, Grayscale, 21Shares, and Bitwise have not seen a decision on their filings. Nonetheless, several market watchers, including Oliver Michel, CEO of German firm Tokentus, believe the SEC will grant approval once the shutdown ends.

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Should the sort of widespread approval analysts expect actually materialize, industry leaders like Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg believe XRP ETFs could see massive inflows. For instance, McClurg has predicted inflows ranging from $5 to $10 billion in the first month of trading. 

Now, even if the lower end of this projection plays out, what happens after a month of trading? Notably, while Ethereum ETFs underperformed in their first four months, seeing a total netflow of -$480 million then, they picked up momentum much later, with total netflows hitting $14.57 billion at press time.

This shows that it could also be up only for XRP spot ETFs, positively impacting the XRP price. Considering this prospect, we recently assessed how much the XRP price could increase if, in two years, XRP spot ETFs capture just 50% of the inflows recorded by Bitcoin ETFs this year alone.

XRP Price if It Captures 50% of Bitcoin ETFs’ 2025 Inflows

For context, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of $65.17 billion since launch, according to Sosovalue. Of this figure, $26.6 billion has come from this year alone. This is despite the poor performance from these products since Oct. 10, having lost $533 million within this period.

Notably, if XRP ETFs capture 50% of this figure in two years, they would welcome $13.3 billion in inflows. This is a reasonable expectation, considering Ethereum ETFs have already secured $14.57 billion worth of inflows in just a year and three months.

Meanwhile, it is important to note that capital inflows do not always equal the increase in an asset’s valuation. Due to the inflow-to-valuation multiplier, capital flows often lead to higher spikes in market caps. For instance, in May, analyst Dom found that $61 million in capital inflows led to a $16.6 billion rise in XRP’s market cap. This translated to a 272x multiplier.

If we consider just a third of this multiplier for the sake of modesty, XRP market cap would increase by about $90 for every $1 worth of inflow its ETFs receive. At this 90x ratio, the $13.3 billion in netflows by the second year would lead to a $1.205 trillion increase in XRP’s market cap. 

Today, XRP boasts a market cap of $143 billion, as it currently trades for $2.38. If its valuation increases by $1.205 trillion, this would lead to a new cap of $1.348 trillion. Considering the circulating supply of around 60 billion, this new market cap would lead to a price of $22.48, representing an 844% increase from the current value.