Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin-centric company, Strategy, may soon join the S&P 500 index, according to a new report from 10X Research.
The firm estimates a 70% probability that Strategy will join the index by December 19, 2025. The outlook is due to a projected $3.8 billion gain from its Bitcoin holdings in the upcoming third-quarter earnings report.
Strategy is expected to release its Q3 2025 earnings on October 30, which could serve as a major catalyst for S&P 500 inclusion. A profitable quarter would strengthen its eligibility based on profitability, market capitalization, and trading volume.
Bitcoin Treasury Drives Market Confidence
Since rebranding and pivoting fully into Bitcoin accumulation, Strategy has become the world’s most prominent corporate BTC holder. It holds more than 640,000 BTC worth roughly $74 billion. The company has financed its Bitcoin strategy through a mix of debt and equity offerings since 2020.
However, Strategy has seen a major slowdown in October’s Bitcoin purchases, acquiring just 778 BTC compared to 3,526 BTC in September. 10X Research noted that this is precisely the point in the market where “liquidity returns and outsized moves begin.”
The firm also reported that about $18 billion in investor losses have already been absorbed during the market correction, while volatility and trading activity are starting to rise again.
Crypto Valuations and Market Stress
Notably, 10X Research’s outlook for Strategy comes amid wider concerns around digital asset treasuries. Several firms, including Bitmine, Metaplanet, Sharplink Gaming, and DeFi Development Corp, saw their market net asset value (mNAV) dip below the key threshold of 1.
An mNAV ratio above 1 enables firms to issue new shares to buy more digital assets. On the other hand, a ratio below 1 effectively halts further accumulation. Strategy’s mNAV drop has raised doubts about its capital expansion ability, though its upcoming earnings could help restore confidence.
What Comes Next
If Strategy reports the expected Bitcoin-driven profit this quarter, it could mark a historic milestone — the first Bitcoin-focused corporation to enter the S&P 500. As 10X Research put it:
“Capitulation always feels like the end until it quietly marks the beginning.”
Essentially, while Bitcoin volatility is rising and investor sentiment is at a low, Michael Saylor’s big Bitcoin gamble may be reaching its most crucial moment yet.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
