Here’s How High Cardano Must Rise to Overtake XRP

Cardano would need to set a new all-time high (ATH) to have any chance of surpassing XRP again, just as it did in 2021.

Cardano (ADA), which ranked as the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap in 2021, has now slipped to the 10th position. During its 2021 rally, Cardano’s price surged to $3.10, briefly surpassing other established assets like XRP.

However, ADA has since declined significantly, with XRP now the third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency globally. Like most cryptocurrencies, ADA has faced an extended bearish trend in recent times.

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ADA Faces Bearish Pressure

While ADA has experienced occasional price surges during favorable market periods, persistent macroeconomic challenges, particularly the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, have continued to exert downward pressure on its value.

Additionally, crypto whales have continuously sold the token. According to an X post from Ali Martinez yesterday, whales sold 100 million ADA this week.

At the current price of $0.6426, Cardano is down 23.7% year-to-date (YTD), 8.72% over the past six months, 13% in the past 3 months, and 18.9% over the past 30 days. It ranks as the 10th biggest cryptocurrency, with a market cap of $23.04 billion.

Cardano’s market cap is significantly lower than XRP’s, which has a valuation of over $100 billion. With a unit price of around $2.58, XRP is valued at $154.9 billion and ranks as the third-largest non-stablecoin asset. Unlike Cardano, XRP has spiked 24.1% year-to-date and 16.6% over the past six months.

Price Needed for Cardano to Overtake XRP

For Cardano to surpass XRP in the global crypto rankings, its price would need to rise substantially so that its market capitalization exceeds XRP’s $154.9 billion valuation.

Given Cardano’s circulating supply of roughly 35.86 billion ADA, it would require a market cap of at least $155 billion to overtake XRP. This translates to a target price of approximately $4.32 per ADA, representing a 572.26% increase from its current market value. It would also mark a new all-time high for Cardano, surpassing its 2021 record of $3.10.

While this estimate assumes a $4.32 price could help ADA overtake XRP, it is worth noting that any additional price surge from XRP would further widen the gap Cardano must close to surpass it. Moreover, back in July, XRP’s market capitalization reached a historic level above $210 billion.

Popular Calls for $4 ADA

Meanwhile, the $4 price target has surfaced repeatedly in various Cardano forecasts. In December 2024, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the $4–$6 range as his target zone for taking profits on ADA.

Similarly, in July, analyst Crypto Smith identified a cup-and-handle pattern on Cardano’s chart, suggesting the token could be poised for a bullish breakout toward $4.

Moreover, Cardano community figure Mintern predicted that ADA could reach $4 this year, despite Changelly’s more conservative forecast, which projects the target will be reached by 2029.