As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to face short-term downward pressure, expert analysis has revealed crucial levels BTC must hold to preserve long-term bullish momentum.
In a recent X post, technical analyst Rekt Capital discussed the recent Bitcoin price movements and possible future outcomes. The update came as BTC slipped below the $95,000 levels on November 14, triggering over $1.3 billion in liquidations in a day.
Bitcoin Forms Clusters of Lower Lows at 50-Week EMA
Rekt Capital’s analysis reveals that Bitcoin has been in a downtrend over the past six weeks, following its rejection above $126,000 in October 2025. The move pushed its price down to the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) line last week, where buyers showed strength, causing a rebound. As seen on a separate chart he shared, the EMA intersected at $101,285 BTC price.
Fueled by optimism surrounding the U.S. government shutdown resolution and other factors, the rebound took BTC above $107,000 on November 11, before bears regained dominance again.
Trading below $95,000 at press time, Bitcoin has now formed clusters of lower lows at the 50-week EMA region. While this has triggered fear and panic selling in the crypto market, Rekt Capital highlighted that similar patterns at the 50-week EMA have always preceded notable Bitcoin price gains.
As highlighted on the accompanying chart, after BTC formed clusters of lower lows at the 50-week EMA between June and September 2024, its price jumped from around $51,000 to surpass $107,000 in December 2024.
The same candlestick pattern played out between February and May 2025. This time, BTC rallied from around $72,000 to its all-time high price of $126,198 in October 2025, per CoinMarketCap’s data.
BTC Weekly Close to Decide Price Direction
Notably, BTC is trading at $94,830 at the time of writing and is down by 5.1% in the past week. Over the past 24 hours, it has declined by more than 7%. While Bitcoin shows weakness in the short term, Rekt Capital noted that the leading cryptocurrency still has a bullish market structure in its weekly outlook.
However, he stressed that Bitcoin needs to close above this week’s 50 EMA line, else the bullish market structure risks being invalidated.
“Bitcoin needs to Weekly Close above the 50 EMA to preserve bullish market structure,” he wrote. Notably, the 50-week EMA intersects with the Bitcoin price at $101,285. To reclaim this level, BTC has to gain by over 6.8% from current levels.
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