XWIN Research, a well-known crypto research group, has identified the factors behind the ongoing Bitcoin downtrend.
For context, Bitcoin (BTC) has spent the past few weeks in a sharp pullback. After climbing to $107,465 on Nov. 11, it faced strong resistance, eventually slipping below $100,000 two days later.
At the current price of $94,700, Bitcoin is nearly 12% below its Nov. 11 high. For November, the crypto firstborn now sits more than 13% lower, which cuts its year-to-date gain to roughly 2.1%.
XWIN Research Blames STHs for the Downtrend
Amid the ongoing panic, XWIN Research highlighted some of the factors fueling this drop. The team explained that several CryptoQuant authors have discussed the downturn, questioning whether long-term holders (LTHs) or short-term holders (STHs) created most of the pressure.
In its review, XWIN Research stated that short-term holders played the biggest role in the steepest part of the decline. According to them, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio dropped below 1 several times, which showed that short-term holders actively took losses.
They also pointed out that Spent Output Age Bands revealed that holders with coins younger than 3 months accounted for most of the spent volume during the downturn. The group noted that this pattern proves that short-term holders created the strongest and most immediate pressure on price.
Meanwhile, they then stressed that long-term holders also increased their selling, but this behavior fits normal bull-market activity.
XWIN Research highlighted that Coin Days Destroyed, Realized Profit, and Long-Term Holder Net Position Change all showed higher distribution from long-term holders since September. However, they clarified that these trends do not resemble the heavy, late-cycle blow-off selling seen at previous tops.
Bitcoin STH’s Marginal Selling Fueled the Drop
The research firm also emphasized that marginal selling pressure came from short-term holders who unwound leverage during the drop.
According to the report, markets always react more strongly to marginal selling during stressful periods. As a result, leveraged short-term holders triggered fast sell-offs and liquidations that pushed the market down more aggressively, even though long-term holders sold larger totals over several months.
Moving on, the group focused on the Realized Capitalization, confirming that it has continued to rise during the correction. They said this rise shows that new short-term holder inflows still entered the market.
However, these inflows did not fully offset the short-term holder capitulation and the steady long-term holder distribution. Essentially, Bitcoin long-term holders created background pressure, but short-term holder capitulation and deleveraging caused the sharp drop from the $126,000 area.
Despite the persistent declines, XWIN Research suggested that the overall on-chain structure points to a normal bull-market correction rather than the end of a cycle.
CryptoQuant CEO Points to Bitcoin LTH Distribution
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju insisted that the downtrend was a result of long-term holders passing coins among themselves, with older holders selling to traditional finance participants who plan to hold for long periods.
He explained that he predicted a top earlier in the year because older whales sold heavily. However, he admitted that the structure changed as ETFs, Strategy, and other major buyers kept adding liquidity.
According to him, on-chain inflows remain strong, and the decline is a result of older whales dragging the market down. Ju noted that sovereign funds, pension funds, multi-asset funds, and corporate treasuries now build even larger liquidity channels, which weakens the old cycle theory until those channels eventually slow.
Analysts Already Eyeing Recovery Attempt
However, Glassnode has begun highlighting positive signals. In a recent disclosure, the firm noted that distribution pressure has started to ease across major holder groups. They explained that several cohorts reduced their heavy selling after weeks of intense activity, which suggests the most aggressive supply may now fade.
Distribution pressure is beginning to ease across key cohorts. After weeks of heavy spending, several holder groups are now moderating their selling, a sign that the most aggressive supply may be starting to fade as $BTC trades -25% off the highs.
📈https://t.co/no3Wcgh0rR pic.twitter.com/CrhtSr3LGn— glassnode (@glassnode) November 17, 2025
Meanwhile, market veteran Michaël van de Poppe has kept his eyes open for a recovery attempt. He noted that he wants to see Bitcoin bounce quickly, confirming that the market swept the weekend low around $93,000 and now needs to form a higher low.
He believes that a successful formation would expose trillions in short liquidity and trigger a strong upward move. According to him, BTC must hold $94,000 to attempt a push toward $100,000 this week.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
