SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares extended their rally in Tuesday pre-market trading, rising 1.22% to $173.17 as of this writing, after closing Monday up 7.63% at $171.09.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and a $300 price target on Sunday, arguing that SpaceX looks materially cheaper than mega-cap AI peers once the valuation comparison accounts for expected growth. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan later maintained a Buy rating and raised his price target to $230 from $220 after the close.
Monday’s close put SpaceX’s market capitalization at about $2.32 trillion. The premarket gain kept the company’s valuation above $2.3 trillion. Shares are now about 28% above the $135 IPO price set in June.
SpaceX exposure also drew interest in crypto markets. SpaceX Tokenized Stock (SPCXon) traded at $172.78, up 7.74% over the preceding 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. The tokenized instrument trades separately from Nasdaq-listed SPCX, making its 24-hour percentage move not directly comparable to the equity’s premarket gain.
Morgan Stanley Says Growth Changes The Valuation Picture
Morgan Stanley’s argument rests on the relationship between valuation and expected growth.
Jonas’ growth-adjusted measure compares SpaceX’s valuation multiple with the growth embedded in Morgan Stanley’s forecasts. On that basis, the firm puts SpaceX at roughly 0.3 times estimated 2028 EV/EBIT/Growth, versus a 0.5-times median for its mega-cap AI comparison group — about 40% lower. The conventional valuation comparison points the other way: SpaceX trades at about 30 times estimated 2028 enterprise value to EBIT, versus roughly 16 times for the peer group.
Morgan Stanley’s $300 target is about 73% above the $173.17 premarket price.
Jonas separately identified Starship Flight 15, which he expects in late October or early November, as a major upcoming test. He said a successful attempt to catch the Starship upper stage could be the stock’s biggest positive catalyst since the IPO. SpaceX has not publicly confirmed either a Flight 15 launch date or that the mission will attempt a ship catch.
The next flight follows Starship Flight 14 on Sept. 28, when the vehicle reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, its first meaningful payload delivery to orbit. SpaceX is designing Starship’s orbital architecture so the vehicle can ultimately return to the launch site for catch and reuse.
AI Business Adds Another Layer To Morgan Stanley’s Case
SpaceX’s second-quarter filing shows how large the AI business has become. The segment generated $2.561 billion in second-quarter revenue, compared with $962 million from Space. Connectivity remained the company’s largest segment at $4.291 billion, meaning AI had surpassed Space but was not SpaceX’s largest revenue business.
Morgan Stanley’s sum-of-the-parts model assigns substantially more value to that AI opportunity than to traditional launch operations. Space and X & Grok account for $8 per share apiece in the model, versus $118 for Connectivity and $165 for Enterprise AI. The four components total $299 per share, which Morgan Stanley presents as a $300 target. Enterprise AI is therefore the largest component of the valuation model underpinning Jonas’ call.